RedBlueThoughts

There is danger facing the Filipino Nation in the first few weeks of January. Let’s start with the first one.

On January 9, the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) will be having its RTD (Roundtable Discussion or Conference) here in the Philippines. According to the Council of Moderate Muslims, this event will be attended by various members of Arab states. It’s turning out to be one of the largest and the most significant events ever to be held here.

Of course, this event will probably be exploited by various groups, including the MILF, the MNLF, ASG, JI, AFP and even anti-Gloria groups. For the Bangsamoro armed militants, this is a good way to highlight what the Philippine government is doing against them. Surely, armed confrontations will escalate between the MILF and the AFP, since the Bangsamoro struggle is the centerpiece of OIC discussions here.

Will there be a humiliating incident that is sure to occur? The probability is high, since this is an international event. All eyes will be on the Philippines, especially those leaders in the Middle East. I shudder at the thought of a terrorist attack since this incident will surely get global attention if some militant group exploit it.

What am I saying here? Philippine and regional state security agencies should place themselves on the highest alert. With what is happening at tha Gaza strip right now, the statement by the OIC could trigger a regional war or an outbreak of more serious hostilities between Bangsamoro groups and the AFP. We should prepare for any possible terrorist attack in Manila.

What’s so significant about Rizal’s death that we celebrate it a full thirty days after Bonifacio’s birth? Does this signify anything at all?

Is Rizal’s death more important than his birth in June? I understand why we celebrate Bonifacio’s birth instead of his death because, by commemorating his untimely death at the hands of traitors such as Arroyo’s great great ancestor Major Makapagal, we will be opening a can of worms.

Bonifacio was betrayed by the ascendant elite who want to wrestle the leadership of the revolution from the middle class represented by the Supremo. His death marked the change in the complexion not only of the revolutionary struggle, but also, marked a paradigm shift in the philosophical world view of the entire organisation. Bonifacio’s death would also re-ignite passions and open old wounds and reveal the unsavory legacy of such big names now as the Paternos, the Aguinaldos, the Makapagals, the Aquinos and the like—all traitors of the True Revolution but now, enjoying some semblance of respect for their alleged roles in the revolution.

Rizal’s death is significant for three reasons: one, it further add fuel to the Katipunan revolt. It served as fodder which led to the “defining moment” of decisive strategic victory in 1899. (Let me disabuse your minds: contrary to public view, Rizal’s death did not trigger the Katipunan revolt. The Katipunan has already declared a revolt prior to Rizal’s execution). Two, Rizal’s martyrdom became a “cause” instead of just merely an “incident”. His stature in society lent credence to the blossoming revolutionary struggle thereby attracting other sectors to the Katipunan. His execution showed the elite that it’s existence is being threatened by the true-blooded Spaniards who did’nt even considered those half-breeds as equals. And lastly, his death was perceived as an “omen”, a “fulfillment of a prophecy”, which, all the more even enjoyed more publicity since it was done at the turn of a century. It was both an historic and propitious moment. Propitious in the sense that it further fueled fears of a millenarian end and the cause of a New Beginning for the country.

Yet, by celebrating his death rather than his birth, we are sending a message that his demise has been far more important to us that the legacy of his successful life. Rizal’s death will not be as controversial, as monumentally important or as significantly tremorous where it not for his popular works. Culturally, we Filipinos celebrate our birthdays more than Halloween, but in this case, we put greater importance to Rizal’s death rather than his birthday. What kind of paradigm are we really following here? Or what sociological viewpoint do we want to stress? Are we then dismissing Rizal’s contributions to the medical field and now recognizing that, apart from Noli and Fili, Rizal’s legacy in imparting new ideas in those fields which he so took part of, are miniscule compared to this contemporaries? Are we then, indirectly saying that, apart from his death, truly, Rizal is no more than a mere eye doctor who happened to have many girlfriends and wrote two novels and who came from a perfumed life but who elected to live a Spartan one because of his previous experience at the hands of two politically incorrect Spanish officers? Had he not died in Bagumbayan, will we ever even look at him as a hero?

Probably not, because at that time, the Katipunan has already succeeded the La Liga Filipina as the ascendant revolutionary organisation. Bonifacio already launched the revolt prior to Rizal’s death so it is not historically accurate to say that Rizal’s death led him to revolt. No. Rizal’s death just crystallized the united front against colonialism. It just lead to a realization of the elite of the futility of further supporting the foreign power and the importance of seizing leadership of the blossoming revolt from a middle class millenarian believer to a Republican.

Rizal’s death just signified the beginning of a leadership shift of the revolution from the masses to the “enlightened” caciques who were fighting a different cause, far, far different from the “cause” of the masses. Prior to the ascendancy of the Pinoy elite clique to the Katipunan leadership, the “cause” of the masses can be described as “agrarian” based. When leadership changed hands with the demise of the Supremo, the “cause” changed from “agrarian” to “nationalism” or even another abstract concept as “Republicanism”.

The paradigm shift is premature since the previous Katipunan concept has not been distilled as yet by the masses who supported it. But since the change has been abrupt, it also affected the very nature and conduct of the revolutionary struggle. Worse, the Katipunan was infiltrated by the caciques which further weakened the entire struggle. That explains why, after nearly in victory over the Spanish, the movement was weak when the Americans came. Precisely because the support structures were absent during the arrival of the new conquerors. And what are these structures? The masses serve as the Katipunan structures. But since, there was a disjunct between “cause” and “prevailing belief”, the structures crumbled. This, historically, is what Rizal’s death really signified.

There are current reports indicating a breakthrough in the peace negotiations with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The top leadership of the Bangsamoro people reportedly agreed to negotiate peace with the re-constituted peace panel of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines. Tha could be good news for some. However, upon closer analysis, this is highly improbable given the fact that the Central Committee of the MILF already took a position contrary to what government right now is announcing to the entire world.

Right after that controversial Supreme Court decision invalidating the Memorandum of Agreement-BJE, the MILF Central Committee already decided not to go back to the negotiating table if this is to be chaired by appointments of Arroyo. Philippine president Arroyo has just reconstituted the panel to be headed by Foreign Undersecretary Rafael Seguis and includes lawyer Tomas Cabili Jr., Agrarian Reform Secretary Nasser Pangandaman, former General Santos City Mayor Adelbert Antonino, and former legislator Ronald Adamat.

Note that the reconstituted panel includes people who really don’t know the status of years of negotiations with the MILF and has even taken a contrari stand on the issue of the Bangsamoro juridical entity. The MILF already said that it will not return to talking peace if the GRP just wants to reconfigure the conditions and terms of reference of the MOA-BJE. It will only talk peace under the conditions pre-set by those stated in the original MOA-BJE.

Notice also that those who compose this government panel stands to debate more with the MILF leadership instead of going to constructive dialogue. Again, this peace talks, if ever it resumes, is designed to fail.

The reason why GRP is just doing this now and announcing the willingness kuno of the MILF to talk peace is very simple—Arroyo wants to project a good image before leaders of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) who will hold their conference here at the Dusit Hotel on January 9. 2009. Government wants to project an image that it is protecting the civil, economic, political and religious rights of the Bangsamoro when the contrary is happening.

Today, I learned that my Chinese animal sign is Metal Dog. Good. That’s probably the reason why I bark a lot especially when I see that some pig try to scam another animal in the urban jungle. My bark is worse than my bite, sometimes. I have’nt tried biting someone, but, it’ll be some nasty wound since probably my teeth is all metal too.

This coming year (the lunar year will start on 26 January 2009, the Year of the Cow (ox for some)), it will either be lucky or unlucky for me. I should befriend monkeys and chickens, since they’re my lucky and compatible animal buddies. If you want to meet me, you should avoid doing so between 3 in the afternoon and 7 in the evening since that’ll be my lucky times. And if you see me always facing West, well, it figures. West is always my lucky direction and of course, convincing me to go East is surely not for me. I already travelled in the East a lot and it’s time for me to travel to Europe for a change.

It’s good that I sleep in a metal bed, since that’ll be lucky and I’m really facing West all the time. Good for me. I’m always facing my wife’s bosom.

It’ll be good if I wear white more often and adorn myself with expensive jewelry, especially gold rings. I love gold rings. It gives me something when I need cash.

Overall, the coming year seems auspicious. I’ll be starting a new job which could potentially bring in my best self and could potentially help hundreds of lives out there. I’ll bark more often when I see Gloria and her syndicate buddies scamming their way again. But, I’ll reserve my big bite. I don’t want to stain my teeth biting Gloria’s dirty and slimy legs. Yuck.

Happy new year to everyone and May All be Blessed by God’s bounties!

Will 2009 be a lucky year for Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Will she finally get her wish to be able to extend her term at least, a year? Sources say Arroyo and her henchmen, especially Ronnie Puno, want the elections deferred for at least a year, meaning, make it 2011. That’s their minimum desire. Why? For three reasons. One, they would want the Constitutional Convention formed by that time and they would use this argument to bolster their case before Congress re-opening on January 20. Second, that would also provide more funds for the ruling party and third, that would coincide with the formation of a bigger economic block led by Arroyo. Question—will 2009 be Arroyo’s luckiest year as yet?

The country faces extreme challenges next year, especially in the export industries sector. As early as August 2008, the export industries have suffered tremendous blows due to low job orders. The US market has begun slowing down at that time and it continues to further slide. After the US meltdown, other European markets and even the Japanese market fell like dominoes.

Next will definitely be the tourism-related services industry. With more Westerners opting to save rather than splurge on a holiday, the tourism industry will likely slow down as well. I have’nt seen the World Tourism Association (WTA) projections but this will most likely be down by about 15 to 20% at the most.

Now, depending on what US President-elect Barack Obama will announce on January 20, 2009, the BPO sector will continue its robust growth. Why? Even if Obama decides to encourage US companies to just make their BPO in the mainland instead of offshore, more companies will still decide to continue their overseas operations because it is still cheaper to operate a BPO here than in the US. Obama will likely find a way to exploit other sectors in their economy instead of dipping his hands in the global BPO market.

Another critical sector would be the small and medium sized entreprises. If government, especially the BSP will hesitate to further widen the credit markets, it would put the entire economy to further risk since SME’s rely on banks and government financial institutions for their capital infusions. For example, in my case, I want my own business but I lack capital. Will government extend its loan portfolio further to cover those in-between job cases like myself?

I went to SSS thru the help of its very efficient SVP Susie Bragante and found out that yes, I can get a loan but I need to land another employment to secure one. Whatthe? Its policy. Well, if I elect to continue my SSS membership, I have to pay a sum. Fine. I’ll pay it. But, before I can loan, I have to wait for a month just to post that payment. Whatthef..ck! Paging SSS head Secretary Romulo Neri. You need to create another loan portfolio for the following:

1. Those SSS members who want to start their own businesses but lack capital and resigned from their jobs because they want to be entrepreneurs. And SSS should AT LEAST be able to give them the maximum loan amount equivalent to three times their former monthly pay. Look, Madame Arroyo urges everyone to be an entrepreneur and when we, citizens, do want to make our dreams come true, government fails in its obligation to at least extend us some loan.

2. OFWs. (I think government already provided 2 billion pesos worth of loanable funds for displaced OFWs. By the way, these OFWs are twice displaced–when they went abroad, they are classified as economically displaced. When they’re busted from their jobs, they went displaced again.)

The secret so that we all would survive the global economic crisis in 2009 would be the following:

1. Expansion of credit facilities
2. Lowering of BSP interest rates
3. Lowering of BSP credit rates
4. Expansion of government assistance to SME’s

Whoever came up with that stupid suggestion to extend the looong holidays in the Philippines is a moron. If that moronic adviser of Philippine ill president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo gave as a reason that oft-repeated line of “holiday economics”, he or she failed in his economics class.

For an economy to avoid getting into the recession groove, it needs to always charge and heat up. In our case, our government want this economy to really slow down. With a very long holiday, the economy is in trouble. If government intends to actually increase consumer spending, this is a wrong way to do it because people are not going to spend a ton of money during this long holiday. Many especially working in both the informal and formal sectors are daily wage workers. Other companies also have a policy of “no work, no pay”. So, these people stand to lose about 11 days of pay or about 5 to 6,000 pesos. Besides, many companies failed to give holiday pay and even struggled to find 13th month pays. So, how would people spend more these holidays?

Since government is also on a holiday mode, many people stand to lose a lot of opportunity. For example, those who want to renew their passports, or those who is expecting to sign a new employment contract (like moi)—they all have to do it only on January 5, 2009. By that time, they would have lost considerable opportunities. This also applies to those who need to transact with local government units or the POEA or other government agencies, like the SEC.

I hate to be a killjoy, but I propose the following:

1. Government should at least form a working service unit in every government department during this long holiday. Okey, just allow workers from private companies to have their own long holidays, but it would be best if government opens up starting on the 29th of December, even if on that day only. That would give the best impression to the people that this government is not tamad.

2. Government should make 31 a half-day and January 2, 2009 a working day. Why? If government declares even 2 January 2009 a holiday, we have lost already at least 4 days worth of production which, under the current economic crisis, means millions of pesos worth of productive time lost!

It is time for government to realize that to save us from an impending economic crisis, we need to work harder and by that means more time to produce, more time to spend working not more time to procrastinate and take a vacation. Only morons take long holidays.

By the way….

I’m selling Jen Cc Tan’s Starmaker fireworks. If you want to liven your Xmas and New Year cvelebrations, order some from me. I’ll give you discounts my friend.

Starmaker fireworks are Filipino-made fireworks, renowned all over the world. It’s safe. It’s high quality. Jen CC Tan is a very good friend and she gave me this opportunity to at least earn something during these holidays.

Check out some events made special by Starmaker fireworks.

SM Megamall- every Saturday of DecemberSM Bacoor-
December 13, 21 and 28SM Molino-
December 13, 14 and 20SM Dasmarinas- December 7, 21, 28 and 30
SM Marikina- December 5, 6 , 13, 20 and 27SM Sta. Mesa- December 13 and 20
SM Mall of Asia- Every Friday and Saturday of December
Alabang Town Center- every Sunday of December
Discovery Shores- New Year countdown
EDSA Shangri-la Hotel- New Year countdown
Riviera Golf and Country Club- New Year countdown
Camp John Hay- New Year countdown
Amanpulo Resort- New Year countdown

If you have orders, text me thru my handphone number at 9063286207. If you want a brochure, text me or email me thru mangubat.patricio@gmail.com.

Whatever people say about him, I find Joey de Venecia (the son of former speaker Jose de Venecia Jr.) one of the most principled persons in this country. The times I spent talking with him, makes me feel that Joey really meant well for this country and its people. That’s why he did what he did when he exposed that anomalous ZTE deal.

However, I think that he should have done more…

Joey DV (you can catch him live at http://joey3live.com/ or at http://joeydevenecia.com/) is one voice in the howling wilderness who tried to warn us of the dangers of creeping Chinese influence. The Chinese is slowly dominating the political and economic life of this country. In fact, in the next few days, I will expose the instances where Chinese corporate influence has dominated the policy making of this administration.

Take for example the Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) Bangsamoro Juridical Entity. Do you know that the primary reason why Gloria decided to derail its initialization was a phone call from the Chinese government?

A close friend intimated this to me a few days ago. This friend is actually one of the respected advisers on the peace process by both the government, foreign governments such as the British, US and Australian and the MILF. He is the most learned among the advisers being tapped by these organisations. He’s a Bangsamoro, one of the most respected individuals in the Bangsamoro society.

It seems that the Chinese government opposed the MOA-BJE because it allegedly “encroaches” on the disputed claims over the Spratlys. If you notice, the MOA-BJE includes some of the disputed isles known as the Spratlys.

Knowing this, a top Chinese official reportedly called one of the closest advisers of Mrs. Arroyo, asking her to derail or abort the signing of the MOA-BJE in Malaysia. Mrs. Arroyo reportedly obliged because the call has a threat—some Chinese officials connected with the ZTE will try to further inflict damage to the Arroyo administration by revealing the most intimate deals entered by Mrs. Arroyo and company.

And you know what?

It was the British government under Tony Blair who really pushed for the approval of the MOA-BJE after a British envoy got the commitment from Al Haj Murad of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) that they will adhere to the North Ireland model being proposed by the British government. This envoy reportedly had a secret meeting with Murad inside one of the MILF camps. The envoy got the assurance from the MILF top leadership that they are committed to the “sub-state” paradigm being propounded by the British and the US governments.

The North Ireland model is the one that the MILF agrees. Most of the attributes of this model has been included in the MOA-BJE. This paradigm is also being supported by the US state department. However, the Chinese government reportedly don’t want it because it will disrupt their plans in Mindanao. Hence, the Arroyo regime reportedly acceded to the Chinese requests and aborted the peace agreement.

Now, the Arroyo regime is reportedly courting the MILF top leadership for another round of peace talks, with a reconstituted peace panel to be headed by Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Raffy Seguis. The Arroyo regime wants to repair its damaged image before the international community and wants a peace agreement with the MILF in 2009.

However, a source within the MILF Central Committee told New Philippine Revolution that the rebel group will not anymore enter into a peace deal with Mrs. Arroyo due to the dishonesty shown by her government. The MILF CC will wait for the next administration. The resumption of peace talks will definitely wait.

Meanwhile, alleged dissident elements in Mindanao are reportedly on the move. Bombing raids have reportedly been waged. Yet, evidence point to a special composite team formed by the AFP reportedly being tagged as behind these bombing raids. The AFP wants to intensify the conflict in Mindanao to force the MILF to go back to the negotiating table.

However, whatever the government does right now would be rejected outrightly by the MILF. They had have enough of Mrs. Arroyo’s tactics.

Now, it can be told.

Supposed opposition Senator Cheez Escudero is being groomed by Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as Noli’s “heir apparent”. Shocking, is’nt? But, this is true.

Escudero is reportedly being egged to run under the administration banner, with the blessing of his “big boss”, the main man himself, Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco. Sources say, Cojuangco and Arroyo both agreed to field Cheez as the common vice presidential candidate of both Lakas and NPC in the presidential elections in 2010.

Question 1–what happens to Loren, who, sources say, salivates to run as a presidentiable? Since Loren joined the NPC, she has been the sort of link between the Lakas bloc of FVR and Cojuangco. Reportedly, she is now being dropped as a candidate and being replaced by, surprise surprise, Mr. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party. A source said she’s too busy resolving an alleged personal problem.

Question 2—will the real Cheez please stand up? Will you now reveal your true skin before the Filipino People?Will my good Facebook friend stand up and declare that, indeed, he’s really Arroyo’s boy thru and thru?

I have my doubts on Cheez since the opposition adopted him. And my doubts are starting to surface again.

Also…there are rumours that Mr. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party have agreed to be the administration’s presidential bet. So, will it be a Villar-Escudero in 2010?

That will definitely mess up the political configuration in 2009 since both Villar and Escudero have created their niches as “oppositionists”. Well, for Villar, I don’t doubt his “secret” alliance with Gloria since, his businesses depend on how strong his government connections are.

But, woe to Cheez! Will he now assume the role as Gloria’s golden haired boy, since her previous spokesperson, Mike Defensor, has now exhausted whatever goodwill he had with the people? By the way, Mike Defensor is allegedly campaigning against his friend Quezon City Vice Mayor Herbert Bautista for the top executive plum of QC. So, the fight will definitely be among Congresswoman Susano, Defensor and Bautista.

Going back to Cheez, he’s a chameleon. I noticed that eversince he became the official spokesperson for the opposition. Is he really Gloria’s man? I don’t exactly know but definitely, he and his father, Congressman Escudero are all Cojuangco’s friends. And friends always, always do what their friends advised them to do.

This confirms the uneasy tactical political alliance between Arroyo and the Cojuangco bloc, an extension of an earlier business partnership which started when their operators formed the Ashmore Group.

This group is reportedly made up of the Cojuangcos, the Arroyos and some Chinese taipans. This group is composed of new money. They are poised to defeat the old rich.

What we are seeing is a blossoming of a dictatorship, bigger than Macoy’s and more lethal than what the former strongman from the Ilocos formed some twenty years ago.

What’s dangerous about this Arroyo-Cojuangco partnership is its not latent; it’s a hidden, shadowy alliance that tries to create a modern plutocratic regime controlled by a poster girl.

Question 3—what happens to the Ayalas, the Lopezes and the traditional rich? Truly, the prospect of a clash between the “new money” and the “old rich” is there and threatens to engulf the entire society with fire and chaos.

Right now, there are attempts at marginalizing the economic power of the traditional landed gentry who depend on old sources of wealth, thru the CARP. The reason why people, especially those who belong to the New Wealth group does’nt want to extend the CARP is simple–so that this will allow the marriage of the “new rich” with that of the “old ones” through the purchase or transformation of the land from agricultural to industrial uses.

This inevitable clash of the Modern Cacique (New Money) with that of the Old Caciques (landed gentry) will eventually plunge this country into greater political instability come 2009. The only way for the Old Caciques to maintain status quo is simple—create a revolution that aims to dislodge the patron of the Modern Cacique from power.

Will they succeed? Obviously, each group will not dare start the conflagration since both have firepower.

IN 2009, the battle in the boardrooms will definitely spill over the real battlefield once the Modern Caciques start lapping up properties left and right again thru the help of laundered public money and smuggling funds.

Much fuzz have been generated by Senator Mar Roxas’ outburst during the interfaith rally. A colleague, Senator Richard Gordon, was one of the first one who “castigated” Mar when the Iloilo solon uttered such “bad words”. After Gordon’s self-moralizing tirade, Malacanang followed suit.

I don’t know about you but I remember that incident before the establishment of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Area (SBMA). Gordon was then mayor of, I think, Olongapo Zambales. He was campaigning for the retention of the military bases since, he said, his entire province of Zambales and possibly, of Bataan, would not be able to cope with the withdrawal of US troops.

When Gordon was lambasted publicly by anti-bases groups, he cussed and threatened everyone. His cursing was worst than Mar Roxas. He even accused those who oppose the extension of the military bases as “ingrates”, “fools” and “Communists”. Had I decided to write in Tagalog, these words would definitely offend the sensibilities of many.

Yet, unlike Mar, Gordon cursed the people, not the people’s oppressor, as what the good senator from Iloilo did.

I hope Mr. Gordon would not be that too a moralist and a pseudo good doer. Like Mar, Gordon is just human.

What would Gordon say if PGMA declares, say, Mr. Manny Villar as the administration’s standard bearer and colleague Cheez Escudero as the administration’s vice presidential timber, leaving him, Bayani Fernando and Noli de Castro in the lurch?Will he blurt the classic Tagalog cuss word against Gloria?

I would advise those who dreams to become president to just shut up, just do your own thing and not pontificate like they’re saints when obviously, they’re not.

And since I was one of those who suffered the brute force of state security forces during the struggle against the military bases agreement in the 1990’s, I still remember that angry face of Mr. Dick Gordon and how he fought for the “right” of foreigners, especially foreign troops with the same color of his skin, to occupy a piece of his own country.

On a similar vein….

I came across a blog maintained by a supposed “queen”. My blogger colleague is right. You’ll just land there and will not dare come back.

She’s one of the worst writers I have ever seen, a prostitute of the English language and of the most brutal kind. She cusses. She curses. And she even sells her mother online.

It’s a shame. She speaks like a jolog, yet pretends to be a member of the elite. Shame. And, as I look at her face, her face is as crispy as lechon. Ah, now I understand.

She has flaws and flabs to hide that’s why she cusses so that people will look the other way.

IN DEFENSE OF FELLOW BLOGGERS.

I vehemently condemn those who castigated some of the personalities I mentioned in my earlier blog entry. If you’re a blogger, you need to respect my views on Noemi Dado and all the rest of the guys I met as I respect your views.

Dado and her husband are right. They are not after cleaning the blogosphere. However, I perceive them to be good people and I really think that they are really doing a great job as bloggers. And it is a shame for those people who hit them just because some blogger who happens to be me, perceive them as good folks. What’s wrong with saying that Noemi is a great person? Or that Butch Dado, a great guy? I just met Noemi I think twice and I just like her tenacity. I just saw Butch once during the PhilippineBlogawards and I think that he’s also a nice guy. Same as with what I know about Jayvee Fernandez and Juned Sunido. Totoong tao sila and I admire them for the sacrifices they are making for fellow bloggers who want the world to know that, the Pinoy blogosphere exists and it is making huge waves.