Malacanang has just declared that it is not going back to the negotiating table. This, after MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad ordered all MILF commanders to “stand down” and pledged to go back to the peace table. US Ambassador Kristie Kenney said this is good news, since the Bangsamoro rebels are still open to negotiations for peace.
However, the resumption of peace negotiations is farthest from the minds of both the GRP and the MILF. The Palace has just said it will not sign the MOA and will instead, intensify attacks against rebel forces in Mindanao. If that is the case, then, there is nothing for both parties to talk about, since this MOA is the only decent “way out” for both parties in this conflict. Since the MOA is a failure, then, the Bangsamoro People have no more recourse but to go all-out war, plain and simple.
As I’ve written in previous posts, this MOA is the only acceptable deal between the GRP and the MILF. Other than this, there is no more to talk about for both parties. Surely, the MILF will not entertain autonomy since they perceive the ARMM as a failure.
This conflict is actually, a test of wills for both parties. For the MILF, this is a crucial juncture because its leadership risks losing credibility and hold over ground forces. While for Malacanang, this conflict surely would further weaken it since as I’ve said in previous posts, it is not prepared to engage the Bangsamoro forces in a full-scale war.
Both the GRP and the MILF Central Leadership are losers here. Should Murad’s order to the MILF ground forces led by Commander Abdullah Macapaar alias “Commander Bravo” fall on deaf ears, that would validate earlier fears that the MILF Central Command does not have firm control over its senior and junior commanders. Though Murad previously held the post of military chief, his influence over senior and junior MILF fighters has waned over the last few years. Murad is not a spiritual nor a political leader, different from the mold of former MILF Chairman Salamat Hashim. He does not inspire people. In fact, many among the MILF Central Command see him as a compromiser, similar to Nur Misuari.
If the MILF loses credibility, it loses a sizeable number of its armed supporters and its Central Leadership risk losing power. If they lose power, they lose the authority to negotiate with government. If they lose the authority, then, who’ll control more than 9,000 armed adherents? This will only lead to a split which could permanently end all peace talks.
An MILF split in the offing?
Many sees a split among the ranks of the MILF. Should this indeed happen (since the Central Leadership has been blamed for his negotiation fiasco and ergo, has lost face), this would not be indicative of victory for the Arroyo administration. In fact, a split would just isolate the Murad group from the main ground forces.
Should a new group emerge from the present MILF, it would morph into something more dangerous and more lethal to government forces. Why? Because this group will not anymore entertain peace talks with government and would instead turn to full-scale war to resolve the Bangsamoro Question.
A full-scale war in Mindanao would surely weaken the entire state apparatus. Government resources would surely be concentrated there to quell the uprising and as history has shown, military forces in the past have nearly lost the entire region when the Bangsamoros united against the national government. It would be a war of attrition which could permanently disrupt economic, social and political life in the region.
A war of attrition will be susceptible to spillovers and external influences from regional terror groups like the Jemaah Islamiya. This early, a transformation of Mindanao to a warzone or a regional battlefield could permanently paralyze peace efforts there and lay open the possibility of turning the entire Mindanao into a regional flashpoint. Should this happen, we will see an increased participation of mujaheddins from all across the Asia-Pacific, which would turn Mindanao into Asia’s version of Afghanistan or Iraq. If, indeed, this happens, that could very well affect the entire country and possibly paralyze the economy.
Social effects of a heightened Mindanao conflict
What we are seeing now is just a sampler of what would potentially happen should this conflict escalate. Senators Cheez Escudero and Mar Roxas can always declare war but have they really thought of the effects of it for the entire country? Surely, they will definitely wash their hands like Caesar did in the event of a heightening of conflict and when casualties mount on both sides.
What would Cheez and Mar tell their constituencies in Lanao, in Iligan, in Maguindanao? It’s easy to say “yes, let’s go to war” in the comfort of their Senate offices? But, what would they possibly tell those families out there in the conflict areas and the families of soldiers who are now there in Mindanao? Will they be man enough to face the weeping widows and orphaned kids? Will they go down to these conflict areas and tell the people that war is the best thing to do here?
It’s easy for politicians to talk war. But, are these two men ready to assume responsibility for thousands of lives that would be lost in case of a full-scale war? If Malacanang pursues its war plan in Mindanao, it would surely weaken the entire Philippine state. History has shown that it was this war waged against the Bangsamoro that led to the weakening of Marcos. A weakened Arroyo would be good news for the opposition but would it be good news for the people?
No.
A weak state would surely lose any war. Should Arroyo concentrate all its military resources to quell a Bangsamoro rebellion, then, it risks losing its hold on to power. Even a declaration of martial rule or a state of emergency would definitely harm instead of benefit Arroyo.
A martial law declaration would lead to the end of the Arroyo regime. Why? Because it would court more enemies from within the state. The AFP will be busy trying to mitigate its casualties and losses in Mindanao that some of its top brass will surely entertain thoughts of deposing Arroyo instead of keeping her in power.
Is Arroyo ready for war? I think not.
Former Philippine president Joseph Estrada is quick to his feet to claim that what he did in the past should have been done today. Erap says government is treating the MILF like a baby.
What Erap did’nt know is that what he did did’nt help the fight against the MILF. Why? Obliterating MILF camps would just force the rebels to change tactics, from regularization to guerilla warfare. A regularized army is easier to control than a guerilla army. If the MILF turn guerilla, they would be harder to defeat.
That is what the hawks in Malacanang are trying to do—force the MILF to split, then, hope to neutralize non-Murad supporters. That explains the apparent vilification campaign against Commanders Bravo and Umbra Kato. These two commanders are being “isolated” because they are two of the most serious threats to Murad. Anti-Bangsamoro groups are hoping that should they isolate the more “radical” or “pro-Bangsamoro independence” elements within the MILF, they would force the MILF Central Leadership and even the entire MILF to agree on a more pliable proposal acceptable to the government which is another autonomous region, separate from the ARMM.
Would this strategy stick? I am certain it will not. Non-Murad supporters within the MILF have taken the higher moral ground. They have legitimized their cause with the non-approval of this MOA. Instead of weakening, they will actually be strengthening their cause to fight an all-out war against the Philippine government.
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