RedBlueThoughts

There’s an email spreading like wildfire in the blogosphere about a prediction made by a certain Brazilian professor, identified by the Philippine Daily Inquirer as Prof. Juseleeno Nobulega DaRoose.

DaRoose was said to have predicted a big earthquake to hit the Philippines this 18 July 2008. The earthquake is said to be in the vicinity of an intensity 8 in the Richter scale.

I checked this character up in the internet and found his real name to be Jucelino Nobrega da Luz. You can check his website at www.jucelinodaluz.com.br.

He’s described as (as translated by me from Portuguese) as a 45-year old Brazilian professor living in Floriano in the Municipality of Maringa, State of Parana. He’s allegedly a psychic. He spends his time writing letters to persons he sees in his dreams. He writes his dreams which allegedly happens eventually. He writes these dreams and sends it to people who allegedly “ can modify determined situations, while receiving these advance informations.”

He’s also been described on-line as a New Generation Nostradamus.

I’ve checked his site, hoping to see anything said about the Philippines this month and found none. There’s actually a reference to the Philippines last month (June 2008) but nothing this month. What the entry says in Portuguese is this:

Grandes enchentes na China provocadas por um furacão e já são milhares de mortes e começa atingir Bangladesh e Filipinas “ which roughly translates into this:

“ Great floods in China due to a hurricane which will lead to thousands of people being killed and it begins to reach Bangladesh and the Philippines.

I don’t know about Bangladesh, but, yes, this prediction came true in the Philippines and in China. Hurricanes and typhoons belong to the same category, so I guess this came true. I don’t know about Bangladesh though.

There’s no reference to a big earthquake to hit the Philippines in his site. I have translated his predictions this month and here it is.

? There will be many agrarian-based unrest in the Southern part of Brazil which will lead to violence (not happening now)
? Many people will be killed by strong typhoons in Japan (not happening now)
? Many people will be rendered homeless due to a strong cyclone to hit Australia
? A 6.9 earthquake will hit Chile and Brazilians in Sao Paolo will feel the tremors.
? Great floods will inundate France, Germany and Moldavia, leaving thousands of people homeless and a great many will die.
? Terrorist conflicts in Turkey due to dissident activity in the border with Iraq.
? 100 people will die from a bomb blast in Northern Iraq.
? Many people will die due to conflicts in Algeria, possibly to happen due to an aftermath of a 7.1 intensity quake
? Japan’s economy will get better with an economic growth of 4.2%
? A small 3.1 intensity earthquake will hit the Amazon.

There’s a reference to the Philippines in his February entry which predicted great floods to affect the Philippines, China and Indonesia leading to many deaths and injuries. With the exception of China and Indonesia, this did not happen in the Philippines.

I checked all his previous entries (from January to June) and I found that most of his predictions are about earthquakes, terrorist activity, great floods, hurricanes, typhoons, sickness and cyclones. Most of his predictions did not happen. I say his success rate is just about 30%. So these predictions are more of a hit and miss, instead of accurate predictions.

I am writing some of his other predictions, especially next month and in September 2008.

August 2008

? Small earth tremors to measure 4.2 will be observed in the sub-aquatic slit from Africa to Brazil
? An intensity 5.3 earthquake to hit Jerusalem, the capital of Israel.
? Thousands expected to die due to an intensity 7.8 earthquake in Peru. The devastation will render thousands homeless.
? Yellow fever epidemic predicted in the Federal state of Brazil
? Another typhoon to hit Japan, injuring or killing thousands and rendering thousands homeless.
? A strong typhoon to hit China, worsening the situation there of the homeless. Floods will affect many.
? A terrorist attack will hit Lebanon which will kill 63 people.
? El Nino will affect Southern Brazil. Earthquakes will lead to flash floods.
? An 8.2 earthquake will kill thousands in Caximira-Paquistao in Brazil.

September 2008

? A plane will crash in Southwest of Jakarta Indonesia killing 60 people.
? A strong earthquake in China will kill millions of people. If this will not happen in China, it will happen in the Tokai region in Japan.
? A train accident in India will leave hundreds of people dead.
? China will successfully host the Beijing Olympics.
? A 6.4 magnitude earthquake will hit Sumatra, Indonesia

These are just some suggestions for government to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis. We are seeing a slow spill-over of the effects of this crisis into the populace. And sincerely, we don’t want riots to break out right now since disorganized violence tends to destroy rather than create societies. Here are some thoughts:

1. Government should momentarily suspend VAT collections until January 2009. Analysts say, the global slowdown will ease starting February 2009. Instead of collecting VAT and giving it to the poor as subsidies, suspend VAT altogether to prevent the further swelling of the ranks of the poor. Without VAT, that would allow the middle class to at least survive this crisis. This crisis affects the middle class more than the poor since they are the ones who consume more.

2. Government should implement the daylight saving time (DST) again to conserve energy and resources.

3. Implement a four-day work week for private companies and some government agencies. That would reduce costs and save government some money.

4. Increase excise taxes. Collections from excise could mitigate the effects of VAT collections.

5. Encourage businesses to give non-wage benefits instead of increasing wages to 10%. A wage increase right now will not ease the economic and financial pressures caused by the global slowdown. A 10% wage hike will put pressure on firms to pass up the extra wage hike to consumers, hence, higher prices of commodities.

6. Lower interest rates of banks to encourage more people to engage in small businesses or enterprises. This will keep the domestic economy alive.

7. Prevent or deter a localized sub-prime market crisis by allowing a loan interest holiday up to January 2009. That would allow people to keep more money, hence, they are more liquid. Pag-ibig or SSS should give debtors some leeway in their late payments. A condonation of debts could also work.

8. Encourage people to save more in banks. The more people putting their money in banks, the more it contributes to fiscal equilibrium.

After the 4.5 magnitude quake which rocked Aurora and Metro Manila over the weekend, a few tremors were felt today in Manila. I noticed that these tremors are starting to increase in frequency, not in strength. Philvocs should explain these things before the public to dispel fears of a big one coming. An email is circulating in the blogsphere about this prediction of a Brazilian “psychic” who recently predicted a big quake to hit the Philippines come 18 July 2008.

I am not big on predictions and I surely can’t believe someone who predicts quakes. No one can do that except probably chickens or cats. Animals are known to feel these quakes.

I am more fearful about the economic quakes hitting us than real quakes. I mean, life is getting harder by the day due to the global slowdown.

Malacanang’s economic advisers are on the right course with the Noah’s Ark proposal. It seems that government is beginning to act like a Robin Hood, promising to give to the poor billions of pesos worth of VAT collections probably to prevent a spillage of dissent to the underground.

Government should realize that the prospect of riots is not far-fetched in the Philippines. It happened at EDSA dos and the May 1 rebellion. We saw the anger of the poor against this government before and without an outlet to vent their anger, disorganized violence could erupt anytime.

It already happened in Cavite, with thousands of angry families marching towards the NFA warehouse, demanding for more rice supplies. This is the fault of the current Secretary of Agriculture Art Yap. He’s constantly giving us false info on the true status of our food security. IN this times of crisis, government should be more forthright to us. People would understand if we don’t have enough food stocks. I mean, its quite evident that this administration has failed the people several times. And the people are not expecting that much from this administration anyway, so it’s better to just tell people the truth instead of giving us false hopes.

I have some proposals to government to at least mitigate the effects of this impending disaster:

1. Government should increase the rate of excise tax especially on sin products.
2. Government should suspend VAT until January 2009.
3. Government should reclaim its stake on oil companies, instead of selling its stake on Petron to a tycoon. This is NOT the right time to sell oil stocks. I don’t see any rationale behind this plan to sell.
4. Government should sell non-performing GOCC’s now to generate revenues.