RedBlueThoughts

As we blame Sulpicio Lines for that sea disaster (the 5th time!), the world waits for the announcement of the US Federal Reserve on the fate of the US economy. This Thursday, the Fed will announce the first quarter economic performance of the economy. This is quite important, since the Fed is also expected to announce the impact of rising crude prices, unemployment and food prices. Technically, the US is suffering a mild recession and it could worsen into a depression if left unchecked.

What the US, and the rest of the world is most concerned about is the “free falling” state of global oil prices. Today, oil prices reached a ridiculous US$ 143/barrel, a US$ 3 rise from last week’s price. Markets reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones falling nearly 11 percentage points today. Speculations are rife that crude price could reach US$ 160/barrel, even if Saudi Arabia continues its plan to increase production.

Many analysts blame oil speculators for this rise in oil prices. Many even see these oil speculators using the “Global Warming” scare to justify the increase in fuel prices. With the purported “depletion” of oil reserves around the world, speculators have created a scenario where they justify oil as a threatened or “rare” commodity, hence, rising price of resources to satisfy demand.

World leaders and CEOs are now meeting as we speak in Europe at the World Petroleum Conference. The meeting aims to address key issues such as this affecting the global oil economy. However, many are pessimistic since oil-producing countries such as Iraq continues to reject foreign oil contracts. Also, many oil companies have decreased oil exploration activities due to economic pressures. So, we may still expect oil prices to go up in the next few months. Analysts say, we would probably see a US$ 160-200/barrel price of crude in December 2008.

Analysts are also looking at the dismal performance of the job market in the US. Siemens, one of the world’s largest companies, have announced the lay off of more than a thousand workers. Other smaller and medium-sized companies have also announced job cuts. This could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment rates in the US, expected to double digit by mid-August.

Lastly, inflation seems pretty vulnerable now with food prices reaching ridiculous levels. Analysts blame food speculators, even noting those based in the Philippines. A recent news report says that the Philippines actually created an artificial increase in the price of rice with its international bidding. Inflation could reach double digits for both the US and the Philippines by August or by mid-September. I am not surprised if it already reached double digits for the Philippines.

What government should do at this point is implement a contingency plan. Safety nets should be implemented to protect critical sectors of the economy. I believe the Philippine economy is not resilient enough to weather an Asian financial crisis similar to the late 80’s. If this is the case, then, short-term solutions should be done, like targetted financial assistance to would-be hardest hit sectors. Export industries are extremely vulnerable at this point and government should be particularly attentive to their needs. Likewise, manufacturing and the services sectors could also be affected by the worsening US recession.

Lastly, government should fast-track the implementation of Salceda’s Noah’s Ark plan. Some of us would probably think this is just a dole-out, but a similar program succeeded in arresting the economic slide of Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. Government should protect the further deteriorating state of almost 5 million poor families, especially in the National Capital Region (NCR) to (1) prevent social unrest caused by economic difficulties and (2) enable the economy to still float and survive this slowdown of the global economies.

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In his study on revolutions, Sociologist Walter Goldfrank summed up his observations by listing four prerequisites for revolutions to occur: a favorable world context, an administrative and coercive crisis of the state, widespread rural rebellion and dissident elite movement(s). The first three, says Goldfrank, synthesized to form a revolutionary situation. The fourth, given the near-automatic existence of alternate contenders, emerges to effect political and social transformation after military superiority is proved.

Political scientist James Davies meanwhile said that revolutions occur during a short period of sharp reversals; when people are jolted from their seats and realize the imminent threats to their very lives caused by ineffective governance. Various statistics—as on rural uprisings, industrial strikes, unemployment and cost of living—may serve as crude indexes of popular moods. Yet, these are pre-eminent indications of a rising undercurrent of dissent among affected classes.

However, we find in history that such conditions, though existing, did not necessarily lead to a revolution. In the Philippines, such preconditions only ripen to a full-blown revolt only when led by the intellectual classes. Marx theory of the leadership of the proletariat and Theda Scocpol’s agrarian uprisings do not apply in the Philippine context. Our history is replete with pseudo-revolutions or roughly incomplete revolutions that explain why we are still unable to truly progress towards complete state development.

Less I be accused of distorting history, yes, we do find pockets of agrarian-based revolts in our historical experience; but these are aberrations rather than stages in a continuing revolution. Idealists among us are quick to say that such incidents are interlinked. Close study reveals that causes may be the same, but we find no unified agenda among groups who led these incidents. Our failure to grasp this historical realities is the true cause of our failure to launch genuine revolutions of such magnitude as to effect real change in our society.

Towards an Epistemological approach to revolutions

True revolutions, as Clifford Kroeber wrote, need a comprehensive and general theory or strategy. The lack of such a model causes disruptions and failures in effecting strategy. We may launch thousands of rallies against the state but it will not lead to total change. We may organize the Filipino proletariat, yet, this will not lead to their emancipation nor the establishment of a dictatorship of this class.

Our present situation calls for an epistemological examination of our history through what I call the “synthesis of causes.” We are caught, as Thomas Kuhn described, in our own individualized world views or “paradigms” that reflect on invididual accumulations of social norms and reward processes that prevents us from considering certain actions for change. We are being held back by our very situation to truly push for a liberating strategy against this parasitic state.

A re-examination of what is Filipino and what is his concepts of change may contribute towards an epistemological solution. However, we need to create social cycles that would lead to a psycho-social evolution marked by the dominance of the intellectual entrepreneur. It is this class that would lead a genuine People’s Revolution. A social cycle allows one collective mindset–a class–to emerge, set up and assume a dominant position whenever a former collective mindset or class has been corrupted or has degenerated. The exigency of such a strategy is pre-eminent given the present condition of the Philippine state.

Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago says that she’ll run for president if she does’nt land a post at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). She was quoted during a lull in the presidential entourage in Washington DC.

“I’ll just put fear in the hearts of my enemies, if I decide to run as president,” says the feisy former QC judge who was elected under a platform of good governance and an anti-corruption stance.

Are you threatening us? Surely, the ICJ is not as masochistic as some of us Filipinos. If we can tolerate characters such as you because we simply don’t have a choice, then, it’s different with other countries.

Well, Miriam, it will not be your enemies who’ll be afraid of your candidacy. It is the whole goddamned country whom you have been terrorizing since you became a legislator.

Yes, Miriam, like Gloria, you’re living in your own fantasy world (Gloria’s world is her version of Enchanted Kingdom). You’re the Snow Queen who thinks everybody have pea brains and you’re the only genius.

The very idea of Miriam running for president makes one seek refuge, even in loony bins. If Miriam do become president, inside Mandaluyong seems more live-able than outside its walls.

If Miriam becomes president, the AFP should get ready. They should quickly modernize their stuff because chances are, we’ll find ourselves going to war with China. Or Russia. Or Malaysia. Or even Singapore.

And if indeed the good senator becomes president, let us free those living in asylums. That way, Miriam can definitely say, I’m the Snow Queen of Enchanted Kingdom.

PAGASA announced that 16 more storms or typhoons are expected to hit the country this year. Now that we know, it’s time for government and institutions to work together and prevent such disasters from happening. I was listening to Joel Reyes-Zobel’s program over DZBB today and one of his resource persons said that his organisation have made what he called a “spatial map”, that identified certain areas believed to be disaster-prone (I think it was the Greenpeace spokesman, forgot the name, was driving kasi for a meeting).

That’s a good way to start.

Government should also implement an annual crisis/disaster contingency plan since we all know that it is this time of the year when we face either El Nino or La Nina or that meteorological anomaly called “Habagat.” It should have been incumbent upon government to start institutionalizing measures that would save a lot of lives. Pro-activeness is the word to remember.

I also have a proposal for government—start investing in rescue and retrieval equipment. It took 4 days before a full-blown relief operation was conducted re: Sulpicio Lines tragedy.

Also, strengthen please the National Disaster Coordinating Council. Make it a full department so that its budget is not tied with the defense budget. Hey, we’re hit with freak storms, earthquakes and natural calamities and it’s better to prepare for them now instead of waiting for another tragedy to happen.

Malacanang should propose a bill that would make the NDCC a department instead of just being a line agency. The palace should make it as one of their priority bills when Congress opens this July.

A colleague of mine once said that more people wrote about Ces’ kidnapping incident than this latest tragedy involving Sulpicio lines. I just visited www.filipinovoices.com and found his observation false. Both incidents got equal attention. And both should be condemned as signs of government negligence.

However, I find very disenheartening opposition’s silence about this latest incident. It seems that their mouths were suddenly gagged. They probably think that this incident is not political at all. It’s a tragedy and like their counterparts in the States, they should keep their big mouths shut.

As usual, the opposition is misinterpreting the situation. If they’re really dead serious in toppling this government, now is the time to do it. People are mourning. People know that the cause of their suffering was government negligence. First, government still allowed a recidivist like Sulpicio Lines to still operate despite its dismal record as a carrier. Second, the DOTC, Marina and Coast Guard erred in handling Sulpicio Lines with kid’s gloves. And third, government just acted after four days, it is as if they allowed all those people trapped inside the ship to die first before undertaking retrieval operations (note: its retrieval, not rescue).

Look at the depth of the people’s despair. Any revolutionist would probably exploit this situation to push for his cause. To hell if people would accuse a revolutionist of being a manipulative and exploiter of bad fate. Hey, this is a struggle. And this is an opportunity that should not have been passed by those who want Gloria’s head.

That’s the problem with the opposition. Their sights are directed at 2010. This fact highlights one thing–they are no different from those who illegally occupy Malacanan. They have the same skin, the same hide as those whom they publicly despise.

Here’s my take on the hottest places in this country:

1. Romblon. Go see those floating cadavers. You’ll know you’re in the Philippines.

2. Iloilo. Go, see what Nature has wrought against men who abused it. Imagine, some government officials telling people to accept their fate since they swept the mountains of trees anyway.

3. Boracay. Now is the time to go. That’ll tell you how Nature can destroy a paradise such as this one.

4. Lingayen Pangasinan. Go see the butandings there. And find their carcases lying in the beach.

5. Mulanay, Quezon. Look at those people buried in those black coasts. They are fine specimens of how governments disdain the poor and side with the rich, like the owners of Sulpicio Lines.

6. Sulpicio Lines offices. This is a nice place to see how Pinoys wail in despair but doing nothing to solve their situation. After the wailing, nothing.

7. 4 provinces of Bulacan. Inundated rice fields. Fallen electric posts. Destroyed bridges and roads.

8. Sarangani province. Visit the girl who got caught in the crossfire of men’s greed.

9. Jolo. Bask in the midday sun while being ogled by armed men, thinking of making a fast buck out of your head.

10. Malacanan. Think of all those men and women washing their hands from the filth of irresponsibility. And finding erudition from suggestions of “let’s not allow ships to sail when it’s signal number one.” What crap! But, as they say, this place still gives us nostalgia, of an era when true leaders walk its grounds at night, thinking of ways to solve problems instead of causing them.

While Gloria was hobnobbing with Washington royalty, “Frank” went on a killing spree, slaying hundreds and destroying property worth 4.3 billion pesos. Thirty eight provinces were laid waste and made desolate. The devastation is widespread, from as far as Pangasinan to the Southern provinces of the country. It is as if God has judged us for our omissions.

More that these raw stats, the devastation wrought by Frank is worth more than that. Thousands or even millions face the prospect of hunger and depression. To prevent things from turning worst, Gloria ordered the flooding of NFA rice to affected areas. But, this is just a stop gap measure.

You can’t eat raw rice. You have to cook it. But, how could you when you don’t have electricity? You don’t have gas? These areas were rendered disabled due to the storm.

International help should be pouring in right now. The United States says it will give US$200,000 as aid to those affected areas. They even lent their precious military rescue hardware to retrieve those bodies off the coast of Romblon.

As more bodies are being recovered from the sunken ship, Malacanang’s men are in a frenzy as to who should conduct that probe of Sulpicio lines. (In) Justice Secretary sRaul Gonzales says it should be a probe initiated by Malacanan with the Marina and the Coast Guard made to inhibit themselves for an impartial investigation. DOTC secretary Leandro Mendoza meanwhile said, it should be his department since it is mandated by law. This is the first time that a non-lawyer remarked with legal authority on a matter which the chief enforcer of the law should have known in the first place.

While they’re pointing fingers, all the Vice President can suggest is disallow ships from cruising when there’s a storm signal. What a whimp of a leader. Those footages showing VP Noli conducting a cabinet meeting should remind us even more not to elect him in 2010.

IN these times, we need someone who will lead us. Mar Roxas went to Iloilo to assess the damage and provide some solutions to the problem. That’s the way to do it. Go to the people, see these things not from a distance but from close range. And provide intelligent solutions.

Some things are very clear in all of these things:

1. Government should have a comprehensive disaster contingency plan in place to address natural or man-made disasters such as these.
2. A clear organisational chart or command responsibility should be effected in case the president goes someplace else, and not allow a whimp such as the Vice President to command such a crucial Cabinet meeting.
3. Remember not to vote for the Vice President come 2010.
4. As a leader, go to the people and attend to their needs and not spend time finger-pointing, least a non-lawyer reminds you about the law which you ought to enforce.

Loren Legarda, the presidentiable is in deep s…h…i…t. She has a lot of explaining to do.

Now that the PNP has charged Mayor Isnaji and his son Haider of complicity to the kidnapping and even received ransom money as what this photo is showing, the PNP and the Senate should call for an investigation into the extent of Senator Loren Legarda’s participation in the kidnapping negotiations.

Loren was the one who announced the “unconditional” release of Ces Drilon. She said that the kidnappers released Ces “without paying any ransom money” to the kidnappers.

Now, this. The photo shows wads of bills being counted by the Sulu Vice Governor and Mayor Isnaji calling the kidnappers, telling them that the money has just arrived. The PNP said that the family of Ces Drilon paid 5 million pesos in ransom money and 3M pesos went to Mayor Isnaji.

Question—how about Loren Legarda? How much pork barrel funds did she commit to the kidnappers in exchange for the life of Ces Drilon? Sources say that this was the tactic used by Loren in previous releases. Loren allegedly promise a part of her pork barrel funds to kidnappers of Arlyn dela Cruz and even when she negotiated for the release of an AFP officer hostaged by the CPP-NPA-NDF.

Loren should be made to explain this thing before the Senate. There could be ethical violations on the part of the legislator.

This is a big scandal which could rock the very foundations of Congress. Or, quite possibly, affect the career of Loren.

This is why other presidentiables, such as Mar Roxas, avoided being enmeshed in this controversy. They recognized early on that politics has nothing to do with police matters, such as this high-profile kidnapping.

Politics complicates police operations since politicians are not trained to be negotiators. Over at Filipinovoices.com, Nick pointed this out and surely, Loren should have been advised not to involve herself with this. She may have earned “ganda” points, but what about this latest development? Surely, her name would be dragged into this controversy.

I hate to say it to a friend, but Loren has a lot of explaining to do.

As I wrote in previous entries, June and July are critical months for the Filipino people. One, food prices are expected to rise further, due to food and oil price speculations in both the global and local markets. Two, despite the expected decrease in electricity rates, water rates are sure to rise due to the falling peso ranged against the green buck. Three, these months are campaign periods for the ARMM elections. With the number of candidates for the ARMM gubernatorial posts and the resumption of armed hostilities against the ASG and criminal elements in Sulu, things could turn really ugly. Lastly, Congress will re-open the ZTE probe and other controversies which definitely would again heat up the political scene.

What is more challenging is the way the local economy has been “fucked up”, as described by Economic adviser and Governor Joey Salceda. Recently, in a news report, he bewailed the rising numbers of poor people, estimated to be around 4 million to date, which could be extremely difficult to manage. Cash subsidies could provide some relief but this cannot ultimately solve the crisis. And despite early opposition to government’s plan to subsidize some food costs, this could be a feasible solution, given that the real issue behind all of these is the decreasing purchasing power of Filipinos.

Malacanang should pursue Salceda’s Noah’s Ark plan to at least address the rising economic concerns of the poor. Eliminating VAT is not the answer, since big firms and wealthy individuals are also expected to gain from this instead of the poor. There should be a mechanism to give back VAT to those critical sectors of the economy. Short of subsidies, government should strictly enforce socialized services within a period of six months at the least, to enable poor families to at least weather the socio-economic storm.

Likewise, Malacanan should suspend the ARMM elections to save money and prevent a possible escalation of hostilities in Mindanao. I am glad that Gloria decided to resume peace negotiations with the MILF with some solutions on the thorny issue of ancestral domain. That is the way to go.

By the way, I’m extremely glad that the US will build a US$ 3 million port in Sulu. Kenney is right. That will surely provide enough jobs for the Tausugs there and deter them from doing criminal and stupid things like kidnappings.