RedBlueThoughts

We have seen numerous fortune tellers on television, saying this and that about our fate this 2008. This year, as everyone knows, is the start of a new cycle in Chinese astrology. These fortune tellers have already said things on the futures and careers of showbiz personalities, etc. What about politics and the economy? Let me humour you, my readers, about some political prognostinations this 2008.

Politics 1: Anti-Arroyo protests to continue

Protests against this government will continue unabated this year. However, I see that these groups will encounter numerous problems. First, logistics. Second, lack of support from political parties and third, internal disagreements. These snags will affect their moves in a major way.

Initiative has been lost due to the Christmas season. I see a controversy to happen within the first and second weeks of January which would again, put the anti-arroyo movement on perspective. A move to oust Arroyo could be possible within January or the first weeks of February. After this, possibly on June, July or worst, September.

Politics 2: Opposition will remain weak

The fragmentation of the opposition ranks contribute greatly to its weakness. This early, various opposition personalities have intimated their desire to run for president in 2010. I dare say that these personalities do not hold the people’s interests in their hearts. For if they do, they will not wreck the opposition ranks with their personal desires. No one among them is fit to become president. They don’t have the genuine interest of the people in their minds and hearts.

The lack of a solid campaign ideological platform will contribute to the defeat of the opposition in 2010.

Politics 3: 2008–campaign year for 2010

2008 will usher the start of the election campaign period. Several personalities will test the waters so to speak. Expect vigorous media campaigns from presidentiables coming from the opposition and administration.

Politics 4: Philippines–theater of war between US and China

This country will remain the foremost theater of war between the US and China. Though undeclared, this silent war will continue in the Philippines. We felt this cold war between the two economic giants during the ZTE controversy and the propaganda against Chinese products. Chinese and American interests will dominate Philippine policy-making this year.

Last year, we saw the emergence of a forward base by the US in Mindanao. China will definitely fortify its presence in the Spratlys as countermeasure. Increased Chinese presence in the country will be felt. It will be a matter of how pervasive the influence is from both groups.

Politics 5: US to choose candidate with strong links

The US is seeking a presidentiable who will not oppose US interests and at the same time, counter Chinese interests in the country. Obviously, this administration is pro-Chinese. Look at how it looks the other way when Chinese products flood the markets via Customs. Study the disparity of US products vis-a-vis Chinese products in the Philippines and you’ll know what I meant.

2008 will see more and more engagements of Chinese and American envoys with both opposition and administration camps. Castilian interests will be tertiary.

The Court of Appeals just found retired General Jovito Palparan liable for the disappearance of two farmers in 2006. This is concrete evidence of the culpability or complicity of the AFP in human rights violations. Do we expect this administration to prosecute The Butcher?

I extremely doubt it.

This administration has an unspoken policy against its enemies. And this policy involves elimination. Arroyo started the ball rolling with a declaration of war against the CPP-NPA-NDF. The AFP has a deadline–2010. Arroyo also pronounced death on the MILF and the ASG. The AFP has been unsuccessful so far. Why? Because the people hate them. And why do the people hate the AFP?

One, the AFP establishment continues to support an illegitimate president. Two, it continues to lie about its part on human rights violations. And third, it continues to stifle dissent from its ranks. Reform-minded officers are put in jail and those who advocate for the total cleansing of the ranks are branded as destabilizers.

Palparan’s continued stellar role as this administration’s Berdugo adds to the people’s distrust. What’s worst, Palparan’s taste for blood continues even after his tenure as Army general. Much worst is this news that Palparan had a role in the killing of a Davao journalist upon the alleged instigation of a legislator. Palparan, now a paid assassin? I surely hope not. Because this puts the anti-Communist campaign on a very bad light.

It is to the best interest of the AFP to silence Palparan. Otherwise, we may yet see the people themselves silencing the braggart.

Magno’s relevance

Philippine Star Columnist Alex Magno said that the CPP-NPA-NDF is becoming irrelevant. I ask Magno–what’s relevant to him? Supporting an illegitimate and extremely becoming a conjugal dictatorship such as this Arroyo regime? What money can do for Magno.

Magno became “relevant” when he was used by Speaker Joe de Venecia in decimating the Estrada regime. After the successful coup d’etat, Magno was appointed to various positions in government. Magno became rich (ten million pesos richer, I was informed) when he sold his soul to the trapos. People in the academe says that Magno was a great loss to the movement because he’s one of those who hold promise as a socialist.

I dare say with certainty that Magno is not a loss. In fact, it was a blessing for the Movement to have Magno exposed as an opportunist and a great double-agent.

If Palparan is this state’s agent of physical destruction, Magno serves as its ideological ivory tower breaker. These two stooges form part of a team of deconstructionists whose sole task is to debilitate the Movement. I do believe however, that these two stupid dogs will die before the Movement totally loses relevance.

First, the Movement will live on, probably not in its complete form as a Marxist-Leninist-Mao Zedong thought organisation but as a totally dynamic socialist movement. The CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to innovate and assume forms attuned to the times. This is its fate. If it’s really the genuine people’s party, it will accept the winds of change instead of holding on to the Red Book.

Second, its 39 years of existence shows its enemies that the Party will survive the ravages of time, probably not in the form it envisage decades ago, but in a form still adherent to Maoism yet totally open to other socialist ideas of this time.

And third, the form that the Party will assume is now in its infancy. Going back to the tenets of the Katipunan, which the CPP-NPA-NDF recognizes as its original roots, the Party will continue to be relevant to those among us who want change.

I dare say and I say with certainty, Magno will lose relevance in 2008 and beyond along with Palparan because the people will see beyond their facades and deceit and find lapdogs with hollow brains and saliva flowing from their mouths. As the Bible says, they will be men who’ll swallow their own puke.

History has been extremely kind for the bold. European and Asian histories have seen ascensions by strong willed individuals whom the public adore yet the elites despise. I will not cite case histories here because if you read a lot, you’ll know what I mean.

In my later blog, I said that the present crop of political parsonages suffer from lack of political differentiation. I cited the Liberal Party as one example. Though it has a fresh lineup of young blood, the party still lacks concrete image branding in the minds of the people. Yes, it positions itself as an antithesis to the NP and even Lakas. Yet, it does not do enough to position itself away from its category of being a traditional political party.

What the recent 2006 elections show us is that cheating and election manipulation prove ineffective when a party positions itself as a movement for reforms. The campaign of Trillianes is a brilliant case study. Despite the lack of campaign funds, it won the elections because election cheaters fear for their lives if they cheat Trillianes of his well-deserved victory and the overwhelming numbers of people who voted for him destroyed whatever sinister cheating plans or machinery they have against him. The LP can win like this but they need to differentiate themselves from the rest of the flock if they want to avert a loss.

The possibility of having a former soldier as president remains strong. What would prevent the Magdalo from launching a presidential campaign for Trillianes? Nothing except Arroyo. The Magdalo could register as a political movement and take on these trapo parties come 2010. First, they are differentiated in the minds of the people. Second, they have a cause. And third, this cause actually animates every Filipino mind.

One question though–momentum. The Bagong Katipunan has momentum cut out for it come the first quarter of January or even February. They have two options which they can use–either go for the jugular early on or wait for 2010. If they wait, many things could happen which could destroy momentum. In politics, which they have elected unwittingly or wittingly to participate, anything could happen. Fortunes change in a flicker. They could be rendered irrelevant in 2010 or maybe not. What is certain is that, they should not be blind to the opportunities God has presented to them now. Before the year ends, they should meet and talk about what they’ll do in 2008.

Political differentiation is a term which means being different. That’s the secret of Trillianes’ victory at the Senate race. And that’s what’s lacking in our list of presidentiables now.

What would constitute political differentiation?

In branding speak, this is what we call brand equity or positioning. Nowadays, the people lump all politicians together in one category: trapo. Surveys upon surveys reveal the people’s desire to see a non-traditional politician ascend the rungs of power. What would define such a politician? What would be a non-traditional politician be like?

A Non-traditional politician espouses the people’s cause. And what’s the people’s cause? The people’s cause is a better life. And what would define a better life? Improved economic conditions for every Filipino family, peaceful co-existence, better opportunities, etc. For a Filipino, a roof over their heads, three square meals a day and a secure job constitutes a better life. This is the end-all and be-all of Filipino existence. For Filipinos, whatever it takes to get these things is irrelevant. If it means struggle, then, so be it. If it means going to the streets or voting for a politician, then, let it be so.

A non-traditional politician should have this cause in mind when he or she crafts his/her platform of governance. That platform should have an ideological construct, the kind that inspires and yet, delivers the goods eventually. To be different, a politician must be able to prove that his platform works based on his years’ of experience in public service.

Judging from the list of political parties constituting the political spectrum, the Liberal Party holds the most promise. It has a fresh image. However, its posturing is not enough to qualify it as a non-traditional political party. Until now, Mar Roxas has not communicated the reasons why people should vote for Liberal Party or for him come 2010. Yes, he has his palengke tours. Yes, he has remonstrated his opposition in some of the palace moves. Yet, Mar Roxas still lacks political differentiation because he has not been as maverick as Trillianes is in the minds of the public.

Likewise, Mar Roxas shows no “halos” so to speak, that the public saw with Erap and Ramos. Roxas should command a stable following and the public should see it. Roxas should be seen as a rebel with a cause, the kind that inspires and not just for publicity sake. He should do it by 2008. Otherwise, he’ll lose momentum and probably could suffer the fate of one of LP’s stalwart, former Senator Salonga.

Tomorrow, December 26, the Communist Party of the Philippines will be celebrating its 39th anniversary. CPP Chairman Armando Liwanag said that the revolutionary movement, the longest insurgency in the world, next to the Shining Path, continues to gain strength. The AFP issued a statement which said that the CPP-NPA-NDF has lost considerable troop strength from a high of 7,000 to a little above the 6,000. This, the AFP says, owes to the current administration’s continued armed campaign to decimate the CPP-NPA-NDF by 2010.

Bold words, bad actions.

Obviously, the AFP cannot really kill the CPP-NPA-NDF. First, the AFP continues to have a very low trust rating with the people due to allegations of human rights violations. Second, the AFP is suffering setbacks after setbacks in the battlefield. The Marines, the creme de la creme of the armed establishment suffers from low morale. The corps suffers from battle fatigue and morale due to continued defeats against the Muslim mujaheddins in Sulu, Basilan and some parts of Mindanao. And third, in other theaters of war in the Philippine archipelago, the Army has suffered numerous deaths due to ambuscades and attacks on its camps.

The Reality

The reality is, the CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to exist even beyond Arroyo. For as long as the AFP remains under the weak leadership of an illegitimate leader, there will be major defeats in the field. Soldiers will die by the hundreds and more by the wayside. This is because the CPP-NPA-NDF and other insurgent groups continue to innovate. Note the message by Joma:

Sison said the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the CPP, is “gaining strength and advancing.”

“It is increasing its platoon-size and company-size offensives and is looking forward to the building of mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity and to the development of relatively stable base areas on the basis of the guerrilla fronts,” Sison said in a statement. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 25 December 2007)

Note this statement–the CPP-NPA-NDF is building mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity–meaning it is shifting from a regularized, standardized army setup to a more attuned guerilla setup. What it means is that the CPP-NPA-NDF will try to do some insurrectionary activities which punctuate its actions during the Marcos dictatorship. Expect more assassinations, bombings and other urban insurrectionary actions against the Establishment. This is indicative or an indirect admission that the revolutionary struggle should involve more urban attacks than being concentrated in the countrysides.

More about security issues for 2008 for the Philippines in my next blog.

If a coup does not occur in either January or February 2008, chances are the following configurations will happen on route to 2010.

Roxas-Legarda

There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did’nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon’s reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.

Villar-Noli

Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo’s party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli’s camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.

Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte

There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando’s candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.

Roxas-Noli

A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don’t know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo’s.

Binay-Estrada

Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?

Insider info

These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo’s camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.

Curio

Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is—will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is–will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.

ZTE to be re-bidded in 2008

Government has just announced that they will be re-bidding the NBN project (dubbed ZTE deal) to local telcos in 2008. I bet my bottom Sing dollars that the one who will get it will still use ZTE technology. What the public does’nt know is that the technology being used by most local telcos came from ZTE. ZTE has been in operation in the Philippines since 2000. It is the major supplier of telecommunications equipment to most local telcos.

What this government will do is still award the contract to a local telco with strong tieup with ZTE. And the end result will still be harmful to the pockets of the Filipino People.

PR Contract worth US$ 50 Million

Senator Mar Roxas has just exposed another anomaly this administration entered into—a US$ 50 million worth of PR contract. That’s roughly P 2 billion guys. A US-based lobby group has been tapped to improve the image and reputation of this government before the eyes of the Americans. And for what? To justify the illegal occupation of Malacanan by the conjugal republican monarchy? Some years ago, Filipinos militated against the Venable deal which could have cost the People 50 million pesos. Now, its at it again, spending billions for image reputation management.

Exports to grow only 6 percent

While government continually harp on the economic gains so to speak of the government, they are neglecting an important sector which is the export sector. Analysts say that the export industry will only grow by 6percent which is truly depressing considering the important role it plays in every country’s national development. The BSP said that by 2008 it will relax forex controls to ease the burden of volatile forex rates to the people. That’s good news for exporters whom I believe is having their worst year to date. However, government should take care of this very important sector since export industries are the key to sustained economic growth, not just sporadic growth which we are experiencing today.

40 now, 45 next year

Forex experts are predicting that the peso will slide to its comfortable level of 45 by next year. So, for those speculators out there or for some who want to earn some quick buck from their dollars, its better to buy dollars now then wait for next year to convert it. You’ll earn at least 5 pesos more for every peso you spent buying those green bucks.

Filipinos still optimistic, says surveys

For all of these things, Filipinos are still optimistic that Christmas will be good for them. I don’t know about that. For all I know, prices of commodities have increased substantially since last week. People are feeling this. And I don’t think that government is capable enough of explaining why people are not buying enough stuff for their noche buena feasts. A year ago, 2,000 pesos is a lot. Now, it’s a pittance. I really don’t know what to be thankful for except perhaps that we are still alive despite the horrendous performance of this government. And I don’t want to thank Arroyo for that. I am thanking God for that. Don’t tell me that I owe every shred of my existence to Arroyo. Doing so would be blasphemy. And a lie.

“Huwag nating palawigin pa ang paghihikahos ng mga mahihirap”–Cardinal Rosales
(”Don’t prolong the agony of the poor)

Such words coming from the prelate of Manila gives us some things to think about this coming holidays. Cardinal Rosales sure knows what’s happening on the ground. However, it puzzles me why the good cardinal still refuses to support moves to oust GMA. Certainly, Rosales knows that the poor’s continued struggle against their current state of affairs lies in the ouster of the present government.

However, it pains me to think that Rosales seems to brush off the misgovernance being done by GMA etal. The solution is glaring yet so far from the minds of Rosales. He does’nt want to accept the fact that siding with the poor, especially the Sumilao farmers means giving up his alliance with GMA.

Cardinal, don’t be a party to those whom oppresses the poor. Be one with the masses in their struggle against continued oppression.

Reports are being published about the possible extension of Esperon’s term. The AFP Chief of Staff will retire from service on February and there are persistent reports of him being extended by the president. On the ground, people including his wife are campaigning for his extension. Other generals are waiting in the wings, but I believe that they are bound to wait much longer since there are indications that GMA will extend the general’s term of service.

Surely, since politics is involved in this, there are some things that will happen to justify an Esperon extension. First, people close to him will test the ground so to speak and launch a PR campaign for him. This is happening now with the sudden increase of news articles about his impending retirement. Second, incidents concerning peace and order will occur possibly in January and extending up to the 1st week of February “necessitating” an extension of the AFP Chief of Staff’s term. And third, these incidents would probably involve destabilization to force GMA to decide on Esperon’s fate sooner than later.

Esperon is the longest serving general under the Arroyo administration. His administration has been the most violent so far, punctuated by numerous human rights violations.

Possible scenarios

People close to him will definitely use the “Magdalo threat” bogey to force GMA to decide for an extension. This early, there are signs that the AFP is quietly containing the threat by the release of 53 Magdalo soldiers. Obviously, the AFP knows already that there are new recruits from the military due to the Peninsula incident and its only a matter of time before another bigger incident occurs.

What is certain

Certainly, expect some fireworks to happen before the New Year extending up to the first week of January. First in the agenda would possibly be the PMA homecoming celebration which is sure to happen before the year ends? Second, reports will increase about this growing dissent from civil society groups due to the increasing corrupt practices under this administration. A struggle between two groups are happening and it will just be a matter of time before this blows over.

For now, let’s celebrate Christmas and look forward to a new order by 2008.

It’s just a few days before xmas. And despite the glitter of lights and the cool breeze, there’s an uncanny sense of dread. Almost everyone feels this, except those hiding in the Philippines’ version of Bastille.

The bible says there’s a season for everything. And this season seems to be a momentary respite. Looking at history, this season seems like those of centuries past when Katipuneros were fighting their Spanish oppressors. There’s a revolution being planned and I can feel it festering, like a fire being stoked gently.

I’ve been reading again, desirous to find answers to all these events. Assessing the current situation, I find that victory is almost, almost at arm’s length. What Trillianes did was not a monumental mistake, as what some thought it was. In strategy, I find that a Japanese warrior advised to test the strategy over and over again until victory is achieved.

What the Peninsula siege achieved was it exposed the societal rift wide open. It was the first cry of freedom. It was like the Cry of Balintawak, when Katipuneros tore their cedulas and announced their struggle against the oppressors.

On hindsight, it was not a siege that happened. For Trillianes etal did not take the Peninsula hostage. It was more like a prelude. A symbolic incident, a start, a beginning of something new, something liberating, something noble.

Like all revolts, the Revolt of the Poor will happen despite all the efforts of this government to contain it. When a state continues its oppression, liberation is not far behind.