RedBlueThoughts

On the eve of All Saints Day, Mrs. Arroyo called upon her distractors to wait until 2010. She says that groups out for her head should exercise restraint and patience since “its just another 2 years” anyway before she transfers power to her elected successor.

Why We Must Not Wait for 2 years

With the rate of destruction Mrs. Arroyo and her gang of thieves plunder our national coffers (our debt has reached 4 trillion pesos–60% goes to corruption) with her husband leaving a string of anomalies and controversies along the way, it is not far-fetched that this country will reach saturation point before 2010. Look at the figures.

1. Inflation will hit 3% this November. This is not because of the incoming xmas season, no. Its due to high oil prices and high commodity prices that greatly increase inflation. What this means to the common people is additional hardship and poverty.

2. Forex reserves depletion. The BSP just intervened to arrest the slide of the dollar against the peso. The weak dollar is impacting on the performance of the peso and government is unable to contain the natural rise of the peso. This means two things: one, less peso for the OFW families meaning less purchasing power and two, less revenues for exporters and tighter competition equals either closure of export industries or lesser labor to mitigate the impact. Either way, its bad news.

3. Distressed troops. The internal and external security of the country are at risk with the low morale of the AFP. Predictably, the AFP will suffer a series of defeats against the CPP-NPA-NDF, MILF and the ASG because troops are divided and totally politicized despite what the DND says otherwise. Survey said ten percent of the AFP will support a coup, while 10 percent will counter it. Undeniably, there’s 80% of troops who will look at the skies and wait for these groups to fight it out before deciding to side with the victor.

4. Internal damage to political infrastructures. The current struggle between Arroyo and the House leadership attracts transactional politics which affects governance. It increases corruption levels because both groups are susceptible to giving favours just to increase their base or decrease the enemy’s.

We can’t wait for the worst thing to happen

All these factors weaken the State and it is in the paramount interests of the people that this administration be changed prior to 2010 before this country further slides to destruction.

A colleague in the blogger community commented on my proposition on the caretaker government. He says that this proposition poses more questions than answers. How will this caretaker government come about? If the forces at work conduct an extra-constitutional exercise, will the people accept it? If its through peaceful means, will it bring the expected results, that of meaningful change?

Legitimate questions demand legitimate answers.

Why Caretaker Government?

First, the damage wrought by the Arroyo administration on government institutions will require years of repair. The people’s trust and confidence in the state’s vital institutions has been destroyed. Surveys upon surveys reflect the people’s collective disdain and mistrust on their leaders. This “virus” of distrust has infected the entire political machinery, from the barangay level to the highest post of the land.

For the State to survive a growing movement towards its abolition, the status quo needs a fresh set of faces to replace the old idiots. No one among our present set of civilian leaders show capability of leading the changes needed in our present times. Arroyo’s time has come. She bungled the golden opportunity to be our shining hope. Instead of providing us guidance and vision, she led us to perdition. Obviously, we need her replacement immediately before our country turn from worse to worst.

Arroyo’s replacement

Why a council instead of going to the constitutional route of succession? The reasons are obvious: no one is willing to take the reins of governance. The constitutional successor, Vice President de Castro risks a coup d’etat if he takes on the role of president. The elite disdain him despite having endeared himself to the masses. He has a big, booming voice but no vision to offer the people. His record as a corrupt mediaman still resonates among the people, despite years of being in the civil service.

Senate President Manny Villar is perceived by many as a compromiser and big businessman with obvious corporate goals than governance. Speaker Joe de Venecia’s image as a compromiser and traditional politician still rings true, what with his public pronouncements of loyalty to the people’s enemy Gloria.

Chief Justice Reynato Puno just rejected calls for him to lead the caretaker government. So, obviously, there is no other constitutional leader than can succeed Arroyo in the event of an ouster campaign. This leads us to answer the second question posed by Ronin.

Extra-Constitutional means

Since there is no other option left, those who thirst for changes in governance should accept the possibility of an extra-constitutional means for change. Why? Because given the circumstances and the present state of affairs, this option is clearly justified. Should these forces fail in their mission again of ousting Arroyo, we see the prospect of a prolonged conjugal dictatorship that would paralyze government for another three to five years. I will not mention anymore the effects of this in terms of national security, business and the like since I wrote about these things in this blog some weeks ago.

Composition of the Caretaker government

Political reality shows that no civilian leader is willing to take the enormous task of nation-building. This is a tacit admission by the civilian sector of failure to govern. Hence, this leads us to presume that the most logical set of leaders must come from the idealistic sector of the military. There must be a group of idealistic officers who will stand up and fight. They must be led by a charismatic leader who will manage the affairs of the state while the government is in its formative stage.

A senior council of national elders must be formed to provide direction to this set of military leaders. This council must be composed of previous presidents, like FVR. FVR, despite what people think of him, is the most fitting leader to lead this country again. Joe de Venecia is wrong when he said that Arroyo must do a Lee Kuan Yew and lead the cleansing of government. Arroyo does not have the competency nor the political mettle to lead a moral revolt. Among our set of leaders and elders, only FVR has the vision, the experience and the knowledge to lead this country with the idealistic military.

Another important component of this government must come from the academic community. The Philippines has hundreds of experts, specialists and technical people to lead this country to greatness. These technocrats and academics must bond together and assume responsible posts in government. The first mission of these academics should be the creation of a national ideology that would govern the country in the next decades.

The next important component of a caretaker government must emanate from legitimate civil society leaders and non-government organisations. These people must provide the government of their knowledge about the people’s real needs so that policies are tempered and suits the masses. They provide the needed mass base for a caretaker government to survive any attempts by counter-revolutionaries.

Time frame

The caretaker government should lead this country for three years. Its mission should be the repair of the state’s damaged institutions. Should forces fail again in their mission of ousting Arroyo, the ruling clique will again be emboldened and strengthened to think that they can rule this nation into infinitum, to the detriment of all.

I wrote here two nights ago that the political situation has been muddled by the pardon of Erap. My presumption is we cannot really say where Erap’s loyalties are. However, his statement below says much about his present stand–he’s backing away from calls for Arroyo to quit. This is expected of him, since, Estrada is really not much of a strategist. If we are to review his credentials, he’s (1) a media creation and (2) he does’nt have the vision. Likewise, Estrada, like Arroyo, are flanked by bumbling idiots. Obviously, this statement says much of the quality of people he likes to be surrounded with.

If I am Erap, I would distance myself from all these people and just keep silent. He does’nt know the real situation. He does’nt realize the impact of his statements, one for those who allied with him during his incarceration and two for the millions who still idolize him. Releasing these kinds of statements harm him because SHOULD THE ANTI-GMA FORCES SUCCEED, HE MIGHT FIND HIMSELF IN JAIL AGAIN.

I think Erap was advised to issue these kinds of statement in reaction to the statement by former FVR that his release was a “calamity”. Erap considers FVR his enemy and by siding with Arroyo, he thinks that he can save himself from the clutches of FVR. He’s wrong.

My proposal to Erap is this–quit now while you’re still free. Do not frustrate or serve as a stumbling block in all these efforts at ousting Arroyo. You don’t have a full grasp of political reality.

Net of discussion–do not side with the crumbling Bastille. You might find yourself incarceration yet again. And this time, you might find yourself sharing a cell with his benefactor.

Estrada backs away from Arroyo-quit call
Rejects bid to set up transition government

By Jocelyn Uy
Inquirer
Last updated 02:52am (Mla time) 10/29/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines — Former President Joseph Estrada Sunday distanced himself from fresh calls for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sparked by the pardon she had granted the disgraced leader convicted of plunder.

“It’s the people — the poor sector which is the largest part of our society who should choose and decide who they want to run or replace the government, not the few elitists and the churchmen,” Estrada told the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, by phone.

On Friday, the ousted leader was given a new lease on life and walked out of his sprawling Tanay, Rizal, vacation house, where he had spent most of the six years he had been under house arrest, a free man after accepting executive clemency.

The pardon, which both the Estrada and Arroyo camps cited as a step toward national reconciliation, has triggered calls among civil society groups and political and church leaders for the removal of the President and the setting up of a junta to be headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno.

A Puno-led transition government also does not appeal to Estrada, who said that the nation would only tumble into the same pitfalls of the military-backed uprising in 2001 that “unconstitutionally” removed him from power.

Estrada noted that it was Puno who “invented” his constructive resignation, an act that violated his constitutional rights as the then President.

“Haven’t they learned from their mistakes during the Edsa Dos? Our country has gone from bad to worse [since then]. I don’t believe that these elitists and church leaders should decide the fate of our country. It’s the majority who should have a say now,” he stressed, strongly indicating his aversion to another people power.

No deal

But he reiterated that there were no strings attached or an agreement forged between him and the administration in his acceptance of executive clemency.

“There was no deal. I thanked her last Friday because it is the right thing to do as our Filipino values dictate,” he explained.

Speaking like the true “father of the masses” his supporters hold him up to be, Estrada pointed out that the elite should never dictate to the poor Filipinos who have been helping sustain the government through their dollar remittances from abroad.

‘Hello Garci’

Estrada himself had called for the resignation of Ms Arroyo at the height of last year’s “Hello Garci” controversy which suggested that she rigged the 2004 presidential elections. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Like former President Corazon Aquino, Estrada had clamored for a transition government to replace the Arroyo administration and establish a system of governance designed for systematic changes and radical reforms to ensure lasting solutions to poverty and corruption that have tormented the nation.

He had even expressed a willingness to lead the transition government while it was looking for a permanent replacement.

Not seeking public office

The 70-year-old Estrada Sunday repeated his earlier statement that he would no longer run for any government office and would rather spend his remaining years in the “full service” of the poor.

But when asked if he would entertain thoughts of entering politics again in the future, he replied, “It’s up to the people to decide.”

He also expressed no inclination in joining the National Anti-Poverty Commission, saying that his attention was more focused on linking up with nongovernment organizations to pursue his pro-poor programs.

Among the projects he cited was the “white revolution,” which he had initiated as then senator by authoring the Philippine Carabao Act to propagate the animal to ensure more production of quality milk for farmers and poor schoolchildren.

He mentioned visiting the first carabao center in the Science City of Muñoz in Nueva Ecija province, which he planned to replicate in the Visayas and Mindanao with the help of former Sen. Leticia Shahani.

“The government now has competent people in the antipoverty commission. Now, I would like more to work with the private sector,” said Estrada, who had spent his first Sunday as a free man with his grandchildren.

Arroyo made a masterstroke when she pardoned Erap–it removed a major force in their ranks and effectively divided them. However, the situation is not hopeless. Erap can still undermine Arroyo. I mean, Erap can still regain whatever credibility he has with the people by just one strong statement of withdrawal of support from her. That would be sweet justice should Erap do this. Anyway, the papers have been signed and there’s nothing really that Arroyo can do at this time about it. She can’t file another case against Erap. The question that everybody is asking is–why is Erap seem so fearful of Arroyo?

Could it be that he was threatened by Arroyo of perdition should he not sign the pardon? Could it be that Erap is really not interested with politics anymore? Could it be that Erap has “learned his lesson” and that he knows for a fact that his force is just a “mirage”?

The political situation is still fuzzy at the moment. Nobody can really say where all of these things are headed. One thing is sure though–Erap and Arroyo have cancelled themselves out. They have one common enemy=FVR. It remains to be seen whether FVR still have the force to ram against them. I believe at this time, the accounting of forces have already been made and both camps know their true strength. The question is–will we see a change of government this November?

Observation on the online petition

Based on a reading of the People’s Pulse, this online petition will amount to nothing. The people does’nt want a snap elections. Its a waste of time and money. What they support though, is a caretaker government. The concept of a caretaker government seems to resonate loudly among the people and I believe that should this happen, it will be supported by the people.

The caretaker government should rule this country until 2010. By that time, everything would have calmed down and a new constitution would have been in place. That’s the way to go. The only question is–are these forces really determined to go all out against Arroyo? We will see in the coming weeks.

An interview over Korina Sanchez’s show of Speaker Joe de Venecia and his wife tells it all–there’s something really wrong with his relationship with the president. He verified the testimony of his son of the “shouting match”. And in classic de Venecia fashion, he merely shrugged and said that “they’re still friends” despite what Gina described as their “cordial relationship” with Arroyo.

What can be gleaned from all these are:

1. JDV admitted that their relationship with the president has been totally strained, bolstering the credibility of Joey as a witness.
2. There’s really a campaign to oust him from the Speakership, as what Majority Floor Leader Nograles intimated during his own interview.
3. JDV is not clueless of what’s happening but he tries to hide his animosity with the president for reasons unknown.
4. Administration party is divided over the issue of Erap’s pardon.
5. JDV is really not fit to be a leader because his nature is that of a soft, cowardly person.

Is Erap really been coopted?

JDV also intimated that Erap Estrada has been coopted by the administration. He says that “Erap will issue strong statements” in the next couple of days. What are those strong statements? Is it against the president or for the president? There’s a feeling among allies of the opposition that Erap has been effectively gagged by Arroyo. But, is it really the case?

Nasindak na ba talaga si Erap?

As I wrote here some months ago, Erap’s family is not really that determined to go on an all-out war against Arroyo. This has been evident since 2002. They’re just interested in freeing Erap. They just want to spend money to create the conditions to justify the release of Erap (i.e. those surveys, etc.).

A PDI report today says that Arroyo is mulling the possibility of offering the poverty commission job for Erap. Is this the result of negotiations between them? That Erap will now be working with Arroyo in government? So now, are we seeing the unification of both administration and the Erap opposition? If this is the case, do we now see Lakas-NUCD being sidelined and marginalized? Are we looking at an ERap-ARROYO alliance thru the Kampi?

Effects

Admit it or not, the anti-GMA forces are now in a quandary. They lost a major player. However, what’s good about this is the possibility of these forces gaining the camp of FVR-JDV. Yes, I believe there is really a unification of all former EDSA 2 forces. The question is –do they still have the strength to oust Arroyo?

The symbolic meaning of Arroyo’s pardon is this–it solidified the struggle against both Arroyo and Estrada. This pardon just shows that there’s no difference between Arroyo and Estrada; that they all remain the same and belong to the same kind–that of the most despicable kind. It tells a lot about the dynamics of politics and how numbers matter in realpolitik. More importantly, whether the math is imagined or not, the point of every political exercise is to shock and awe the other side so that their defenses cave in. In this case, Estrada emerged triumphant against Arroyo because Estrada managed to shock Arroyo into believing that he still has the numbers to move against Arroyo.

The onus of changing our present state and moving towards a more credible, honest government lies in all of us. Those who were disgusted with what Arroyo did should stand up now and be counted. Those who think that she did the right thing should also stand up. Let’s fight it out. Let’s just do it. Threatening each other with hell does’nt serve us any better and it only worsens our situation. If its time to fight, we must fight. If its time to be silent, then, find our comfy nook and stay there. We fear civil war. Everybody wants peace. But if peace cannot be attained by peaceful means, then, there is no other way out of this mess but to just fight. Let’s fight. Let’s just lay it out.

De Venecia was mentioning Singapore as a model for us to follow. Yes, Singapore should be our model. And if that tiny island-state is our model, then, we must be ready to fight it out amongst ourselves. We must be ready for civil war. For Singapore did not attain its first world status without people shedding blood. No. Singapore underwent extreme social strife before it calmed down and before everybody sat down to work it out.

Its quite obvious that we are truly divided. We are divided on the way to solve a problem like Arroyo. Some think that a petition would work. Others believe that a military solution is the way to go. Personally, I believe that the military should really intervene in this and impose a civilian-military government to save the republic from total destruction.

I now dare the soldiers who criticize this administration: it is time to make history.

Mrs. Arroyo has just sealed her fate. By pardoning Erap today, she just made a big blunder. She just allowed all her enemies to band together against her. Arroyo, in effect, signed her death warrant.

Definitely, it will not be long before the camp of FVR, the Speaker, civil society, pseudo-civil society, revolutionaries, common people, businessmen, workers and middle classes will now have a rally point. And that rallying point will definitely revolve around the search for justice. Arroyo has just allowed the campaign against her to assume a new character, a new stage–that of being a fight against injustice. Its quite obvious that the ZTE probe, charges of corruption are all campaigns for the search for truth. Now, due to this granting of pardon, people will definitely campaign for justice. The next level will just be the struggle for peace.

I shudder at the thought of another revolt, this time, bloodier and more vicious than the previous EDSAs. It will not be long before forces wanting to overthrow this administration will unite and together call for the ouster of Gloria.

Who would now prevent collective resignation among her cabinet? This early, there are signs of another Hyatt 10 incident. I am not in the habit of betraying the trust of my sources, but definitely, some of GMA’s cabinet are intending to resign. Obviously, the Ramos’ camp will definitely resign from this administration. Ramos’ interview before he left for Guandong China tells you that something is terribly wrong about what’s happening now.

Danger signals

There’s a serious rift in Philippine society now. The military is split in the middle. PMA classes are in serious struggles against each other. The ranks of generals have been seriously affected by the succession of bribery allegations. My source in the palace told me that some generals actually told the president that they will not receive the “cash gifts” they were being offered during their recent meeting at the Palace. Some even left the room after meeting with the president.

The Lower House is also split, with those who side with the Speaker and those with Arroyo. The Senate is likewise disunited with some for the administration and some in the opposition.

We have a disunited business community, most undecided on what to do with GMA and whether to continue supporting her. We have a police establishment that is likewise torn apart due to the mess left by the ex-PNP chief.

So, Dolorfino is right—we are in the eve of a civil war. It will not be long before these forces converge against Gloria.

Will we see Gloria occupying the place of Erap in the future? This eventuality is not remote.

Mrs. Arroyo has just sealed her fate. By pardoning Erap today, she just made a big blunder. She just allowed all her enemies to band together against her. Arroyo, in effect, signed her death warrant.

Definitely, it will not be long before the camp of FVR, the Speaker, civil society, pseudo-civil society, revolutionaries, common people, businessmen, workers and middle classes will now have a rally point. And that rallying point will definitely revolve around the search for justice. Arroyo has just allowed the campaign against her to assume a new character, a new stage–that of being a fight against injustice. Its quite obvious that the ZTE probe, charges of corruption are all campaigns for the search for truth. Now, due to this granting of pardon, people will definitely campaign for justice. The next level will just be the struggle for peace.

I shudder at the thought of another revolt, this time, bloodier and more vicious than the previous EDSAs. It will not be long before forces wanting to overthrow this administration will unite and together call for the ouster of Gloria.

Who would now prevent collective resignation among her cabinet? This early, there are signs of another Hyatt 10 incident. I am not in the habit of betraying the trust of my sources, but definitely, some of GMA’s cabinet are intending to resign. Obviously, the Ramos’ camp will definitely resign from this administration. Ramos’ interview before he left for Guandong China tells you that something is terribly wrong about what’s happening now.

Danger signals

There’s a serious rift in Philippine society now. The military is split in the middle. PMA classes are in serious struggles against each other. The ranks of generals have been seriously affected by the succession of bribery allegations. My source in the palace told me that some generals actually told the president that they will not receive the “cash gifts” they were being offered during their recent meeting at the Palace. Some even left the room after meeting with the president.

The Lower House is also split, with those who side with the Speaker and those with Arroyo. The Senate is likewise disunited with some for the administration and some in the opposition.

We have a disunited business community, most undecided on what to do with GMA and whether to continue supporting her. We have a police establishment that is likewise torn apart due to the mess left by the ex-PNP chief.

So, Dolorfino is right—we are in the eve of a civil war. It will not be long before these forces converge against Gloria.

Will we see Gloria occupying the place of Erap in the future? This eventuality is not remote.

“In search of the truth” This is normally what people always say whenever some controversy or issue arises. People are always searching for the truth. What is the truth?

Truth is relative. In our case, truth is something that one person says and the other corroborates. The right to know is inherent in every person. However, the search for truth should always be predicated on the proposition that it should lead to something more substantive, like regime change. I hope the ZTE senate probe would lead to this.