RedBlueThoughts

So all these muscle flexing for the past few weeks on the part of Erap is just…well..a show. It proves one thing–Erap has lost considerable mass support. Yes, the people still trust and believe in his innocence. Sixty seven percent of the people says so. However, no concrete political action emanated from the masses after the Sandiganbayan released their guilty verdict. There were some rallies but their numbers are pathetically dismal.

Observations

First, Erap’s camp failed to establish strong alliances with mass groups. Mass groups remain the only capable force for organizing people to action. Surveys such as SWS are useless if not used for strategic planning. Surveys are not only for propaganda purposes; they must be used to support plans. Obviously, Erap’s closest advisers are total idiots and bumbling strategists.

There must be a move to court the sympathy of the middle class. The Middle Class is the missing link. Any movement without their support will fail.

GMA’s advisers are doing their jobs. Look at what they are saying right now: if you want to know the truth, read the Sandiganbayan decision. By doing so, disseminating information, they are effectively dissolving mass support against the former president. They are targetting the middle class. They are appealing to reason; not to emotions.

Erap’s strategy is an appeal to emotions, not to reason. For a revolution to break, there must be a (1) reason for doing so and (2) that reason is strong enough to make people cry. No such scenario was created yesterday. The outpouring of sympathy for the former president is emotive yes, but, its not strong enough for people to go out to the streets to express it. The reason is simple–many people believe that Erap committed some graft, yes, from jueteng. Compared with the present set of big-time grafters in GMA’s cabinet, Erap’s “sins” are miniscule.

Erap should do is (1) pour his complete support behind moves to oust GMA; (2) use his resources to organize his supporters and (3) call for action. This is good for both competing parties: it would show the masses if Erap has indeed, the power to still remake history. I bet that he’s too weak a person to do this.

However, one warning for GMA: rest not your laurels this early. I predict that she’
ll not last until 2010. She’ll go out of Malacanan very, very soon.

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