RedBlueThoughts

Former Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban wrote extensively on JoAl’s political theorem. Though JoAl’s concept has been there since the 80’s, it deserves a review for two reasons: one, it remains relevant and two, it justifies a reiteration.

Our present condition needs immediate solution. The solution is political, not economic. Our economy is stable. It cannot just be totally affected by any moves, whether political or terrorism. Therefore, any change in the present set of administrators will definitely not lead to an economic crash of Argentinian proportions.

JoAl believes in a revolution, led by Caudillos. There must be a change in the socio-political system, JoAl writes because this will correct the age-old problems besetting the nation. This revolution must be led by the soldier who suffers like the common tao. The change, though revolutionary, must not change the economic system. The economic system remains the proposed system. It is the political structure which needs immediate change.

I concur with JoAl’s observation. And I fully support a revolution to be lead by our enlightened soldiers.

First stage—- neutralize the weak.
Second stage–create favorable scenarios
Third stage—-wait for a dramatis causa
Fourth stage—launch the storm
Fifth stage—–neutralize anti-revolutionary forces
Sixth stage—–Establish councils
Seventh stage—Peace & Order

Firstly, I apologize for my absence. I’ve been quite busy with work lately that I was’nt able to write about things happening here in my country. What are the things that I’ve noticed lately?

1. Heightening public sympathy to the military. The recent debacles suffered by the AFP in Mindanao has increased public sympathy for the military. The people knew that soldiers are suffering like them. Low pay, security risks and lack of morale–these are the things that the common soldier and the Tao share alike. However, the people emphatize with the soldiers, not the generals. They think of the generals as corrupt, inefficient and totally useless.Net of discussion–there is a buildup of sympathy to the soldier, dissent among the ranks against the generals. For the trained eye, this is the start of coup efforts.

2. Militarization in the Metropolis. As a reaction, Malacanang sent battalions of police and AFP troops in different areas of Metro Manila in the guise of “combatting terrorism”. Bull. The state sent its troops to protect itself from an imminent coup. Demoralisation among the ranks is high. Silence among the anti-GMA groups in the military is deceptive, to say the least. Two things came to my mind–first, this is just a preparation by the State against those who will try to grab power and second, the state wants to beef up its security against efforts by the Erap camp to consolidate its forces and unleash it when the Sandiganbayan finally decides his fate.

3. State forces are being broken into shrapnels. With the bulk of the army in Zamboanga, a composite force was left to defend the State. I bet my Singdollars that (a) this is quite deliberate to confuse GMA; (b) this is an effort by the revolutionary forces to weaken the centre of power; and (c) three theaters of war will lead to an economic crisis leading to a coup.

4. RP Economy weakening. The US economy is still not out of the woods yet. The financial crisis threatening the US economy remains a big problem not only to the Philippines, but in other economies which rely on this imperialist economy. With this, expect the Philippine economy to eventually crash, possibly in mid-September. It is safe to invest now, since OFW funds are still pouring in. However, come the first to the second week, expect the Peso to sink further to its real value and the stock markets to remain volatile. A weakened economy will negate the pronounced “gains” of GMA, eventually rationalizing a power grab. If the peso hits 47 or 48, that’ll be the sign.

5. The Legitimacy issue. The “Opposition” hopes to rekindle old animosities with the re-opening of the “Hello Garci” case. This issue concerns legitimacy of rule. But, why now? Because it wants to further enflame dissent against the ruling clique. Who’s the target audience? Is it the common tao? No. The target is the military. If it succeeds in creating an environment of dissent, it further opens the administration to attack. It likewise, will weaken the center of power, therefore, opening it to a power grab.

Observations:

1. The confluence of dissenting forces will eventually result to a power grab.
2. Forces are waiting for three (3) events: First, the escalation of the Mindanao war; Second, the economic crash and third, the Sandiganbayan decision re Erap. This turbulence will eventually lead to a Hurricane of change.