RedBlueThoughts

MNLF leader Tillah has given the government a glimpse of what would happen should the present problem turn into something serious in Mindanao. Tillah said that the MNLF will declare independence if the present administration continues to continue pursue a militarist policy in Mindanao. What would happen should the Muslims declare independence?

First, it would attract a regional war in the South. Mindanao would be the foremost theater of war in the region, first even to Hatyai in Thailand. A war in the South would encourage all insurgent groups to unite against this administration. Likewise, it would also justify the operation of the Jemaah Islamiyah in Mindanao, attracting all terrorists to go there and fight.

Recent reports show that the MNLF has not declared jihad, despite the death of Jumabi, a respected MNLF commander. A declaration of jihad will definitely transform both Sulu and Basilan into a veritable war zone. A full-blown war in the South would setback peace efforts by twenty years. When these happens, this administration would find it difficult to survive a political crisis in the Metropolis.

History has taught us of serious lessons in a war against the Muslims. First, it dissipates the energy of the government security forces, making it vulnerable to attacks, both political and military. Second, war in Mindanao always unite the disparate rebel groups into one. During the Marcos and Erap times, Muslims and non-Muslim dissident groups united to repulse government forces. This will definitely happen this time.

However, there’s a distinct difference. This time, this war would attract regional attention. JI operatives would definitely exploit the situation and would send its hard-core members to train for war there. It would not be a far-fetched idea if Metro Manila itself would be attacked by these operatives to further weaken the enemy. The US State Department has warned its citizens to avoid going to Cotabato and any area in Mindanao due to the escalation of hostilities there. It would not be a far reality if this war would trigger a war involving Bangsamoro regulars, JI operatives, Al-Queda and ASG members.

Solution:

1. This administration should heed the call for peace by the US and other peace advocates. Arroyo should not succumb to pressures by hawks in the palace. If she’s desirous to survive until 2010, Arroyo should call for a cessation of hostilities in Mindanao.

2. If this administration continue its war policy in Mindanao, groups should call for the eventual ouster of Arroyo. They should not wait for it. They should move now to oust Arroyo.