RedBlueThoughts

Basilan governor and suspected ASG supporter AKBAR contended that there are no ASG group in his island-province. Well, Akbar, what can you say about the 15-minute clash of the Marines and the ASG in Basilan yesterday? Are you saying that the Marines battled a group of heavily armed ghosts?

The ASG is alive and well in most parts of Mindanao. Contrary to earlier estimates, the ASG has established more cells and recruited more hard-core members among the moderate Muslim population. Philippine intelligence agencies are not recognizing this because it has political implications. What is the implication? It admits the failure of government to stem the tide of terrorism in the region. Having assumed the lead role in the fight of terror in the Asia-Pacific in 2006, the growth of ASG actually proves the inability of this administration against terrorism. It is truly, the weakest link in the fight.

I will not be surprised if most of those who threatens to attack US interests in the region will come mostly from the training grounds of Mindanao. Why? Because of the ineptitude of this administration. Despite the billions of pesos poured by the US and its allies to counter terror in Mindanao, growth of terrorism continues because of the following reasons:

(a) Foreign funds are being controlled by corrupt government officials and pseudo-peace advocates in Mindanao. Instead of being poured to relevant projects that would greatly benefit the Muslims in Mindanao, these funds are now kept in private, secret bank accounts by these officials.

(b) Military officials assigned at Mindanao are corrupt. They sell arms and ammunition to the rebels. Check the bombs confiscated by the police and military in ASG lairs. They are mostly from the AFP.

(c) The ones contracted by the CIA to be the “influencers” in the region are mostly discredited individuals like the Rasuls. CIA have manipulated the Ulama Council, but these Ulamas are discredited ones and the local population does not believe in them.

Solutions

To fight the ASG, you don’t need a battalion or a regular army. What you need are special operation teams. These special teams should be composed of highly trained Filipinos.

The US must select Filipinos that know the territory. They should train Tausugs to become special ops teams. However, they should be highly trained and psychologically prepared to fight these terrorists. A clear delineation should be presented: ASG members are terrorists, not revolutionaries. MILF members are revolutionaries– ASG members are not. They deviate from the real teachings of Islam therefore, should be eradicated.

Hell-fire should be used to assasinate ASG members in Basilan and Jolo. The US must use its hell-fire weapons there.

Some thoughts

I’ve been analyzing the interview of Akbar recently and I believe that, there’s probably no more ASG in Basilan. Why? I think the name “ASG” has been transplanted with another name. The term “ASG” died along with the Janjalanis. There is a possibility though, that JI members operate with wanton abandon in the islands. It could be that the new name of this terror group will emerge in later weeks.

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A New Breed of Terrorism in Mindanao: And the Philippine Government is Helpless and remains the weakest link in the Global Anti-Terror campaign

Just like I wrote here at RedBlueThoughts—the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) was behind the recent beheadings of Marines in Basilan. Scour this page and you’ll find that I also wrote that the ASG is the one responsible for the kidnapping of Father Bossi. Yes, all my analyses have been validated. Philippine Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales said that at least 4 Abu Sayyaf terrorists perpetuated the beheadings, contradicting earlier claims by the Basilan vice governor Akbar that the ASG is no longer seen in his province.

ASG more politicized

I’ve been studying this group for a long time. And I believe that they have now evolved into another more deadly form. They have been both politicized and more fanatical (hence fratricidal) now compared some years ago. Why do I say this?

A new Abu Sayyaf

First, I believe that the death of former ASG Chieftain Janjalani ushered in a new form of ASG. With the purported “election” of their Imam as their new leader, the ASG has turned into a more spiritual and therefore, more dangerous entity. What makes them more sinister is the fact that no one knows them anymore. No new intelligence has been published about this new ASG precisely because the government is ashamed that it is losing the fight against terrorism in the country.

Consider this—the Philippines once proclaimed itself as the anti-terror czar in the Asia-Pacific region. With the published “deaths” of key ASG leaders, the Philippine president announced that the ASG is “now running scared and decimated”.

Now, it seems that it was a case of announcing this too soon. The ASG is alive and well. They have kidnapped a priest and caused an incident that would probably turn into war in Basilan.

The Basilan Trap

It was a trap subtly staged by the ASG to foment civil war in Mindanao. ASG leaders have now turned into sophisticated strategists. They know that a war in Mindanao would definitely foment more hatred against the government, and thus, would encourage young Muslims to fight the Kafirs or the Mushrikuns thereby swelling their ranks. During the time of former President Ramos and even at the time of Estrada, the government was able to control their ranks. Now, under the weak leadership of Arroyo, the ASG is beginning to grow once again and flourish.

Lack of Intelligence-sharing

There are some critical intelligence being purposely hidden to the world that would endanger current efforts at countering terrorism in Mindanao. First, the Philippine administration is reluctant to recognize that the ASG is alive and well. Why? Its an embarrassment and obviously would lead to a political scene. Second, the Philippine government tries to appear strong yet, obviously weak and helpless in its fight against terror. Third, it seems that AFP intelligence seems to be getting noise in the ground yet unable to validate them, probably because they lost their embedded “spies”.

Significance of the death of Janjalani

Janjalani signified the old ASG—a ragtag band of ideological misfits formerly military agents. With the group’s alliance with the Jemaah Islamiyah, the ASG has slowly turned into a more spiritual, more mobile and more militant grouping. It silently operates in Mindanao, turning it into a laboratory for bombings, assassinations and military operations. Mindanao, especially Jolo, Basilan and Lanao have been transformed into a huge training camp of ASG fighters under the tutelage of a foreign-trained spiritual leader turned military chieftain. If this government continues to dilly-dally, we might wake up one day and see the ASG as the military backbone of a regional army of militants, wanting to establish a pan-Islamic state.

Weak link in the fight against terror

What’s more, the inability of the Philippine administration to stem the tide of Islamic fundamentalism in the country opens the entire region under the threat of terror. Why? The Philippines is transforming into another Pakistan. In fact, this country has already turned into another Pakistan, yet of the ASEAN kind. The administration is so busy fighting its political wars that it already forgot to beef up its internal security.

If this administration continues to ignore critical intelligence about the ASG, we might find more fighters fighting wars in Thailand, or recruiting Mujaheddins in Malaysia and Indonesia, emanating from Mindanao.

Appeal to the US

The US must step in in Mindanao. Special ops teams must be sent in known ASG lairs and kill these misguided and misbegotten Muslims. True Muslims will definitely support such a move. However, come to think of it, this will just be a mere palliative. It would never really decimate the ASG and their ilk in Mindanao.

What would prevent the spread and growth of terrorism in Mindanao? One possible solution is the establishment of a strong civilian-military government. The US and its allies must support current moves to oust the illegitimate Arroyo administration and replace with a revolutionary government that will not think twice of eradicating these scums from the promised land of Mindanao.