RedBlueThoughts

Yes Dorothy, Arroyo will survive these events. She will. She will be far away when the anvil falls.

Yesterday, the opposition held a pressconference specifically for two reasons: First, to reveal the supposed Palace plot to have Erap convicted and second, to pressure the government to probably “honor” an administration commitment to release Erap after spending six years in relative comfortable house arrest.

The Opposition says, an ad says it all—those advertisements are clear indications that a conviction is forthcoming. Like conos, they are flexing their muscles. They want to show the administration that the “people” will not tolerate an Erap conviction. That an “uprising” will happen should the Sandiganbayan convict Erap.

They even accused a Palace PR man–Reli German–of orchestrating the ad campaign so that the placement ad has direct links with the palace.

The palace countered and said that they are not behind the ads. Maybe the opposition dirty tricks department did it. And they also made a threat. Presidential Legal Counsel Sergio Apostol said that they also have a force–the “silent” majority who detests the former president. An Erap acquittal will definitely “unleash” these forces from their stupor, Apostol said, and this will create instability.

Meaning, we are now facing the devil and the deep blue sea. But, is it really like this? Or both camps, the opposition and the administration, are conditioning the minds of the public to accept whatever decision the Sandiganbayan will give in the next few weeks.

I think all of these events are orchestrated events meant as trial balloons. Why do I say that?

Notice that both camps are trying to court the public. They want to see what reaction would the public have in a scenario of conviction and a scenario of acquittal. If its a scenario of conviction, will the heavens fall? If its acquittal, will the “silent” majority suddenly break their stupor and launch another “revolution”?

I’ll bet my few Sing dollars and pennies to say that poll bodies are now very active, trying to “discern” public perceptions. They can get perceptions, yes, but what they cannot measure is public emotions. Emotive incidents like these are very hard to measure.

However, despite these, I strongly believe that (a) there will never be a “silent majority” rising up in an Erap acquittal and (b) there will never be an “Erap-led revolution” in an Erap conviction.

There will be, however, a third force which will rise up to offer an alternative solution to these problems. This third force will offer themselves as an alternative administration. Both ways, these two camps (Erap and Arroyo) will negate each other. The Sandiganbayan decision will, definitely, open the way towards a new philippines, sans Erap and Arroyo.