RedBlueThoughts

I don’t buy what Senator Estrada and his half-brother JV are saying to the media. Their father would be acquitted due to the strength of the evidence stacked against the prosecution.

The former president will be convicted because the powers-that-be thinks that a conviction will not affect their stay in power than a acquittal

An acquittal will placate the emotions of the Erap throng. It will, however, reinforce more the prevailing belief that Arroyo is the biggest thief. She stole the presidency due to public belief of Estrada’s corruption. If Estrada is found not guilty, then, it invalidates EDSA 2. If it invalidates a concept, generally accepted globally as the way to go to depose a corrupt and inept government, this will have serious, very serious global implications. And the CIA and the US government will definitely not like that. EDSAs are CIA formulations. It is portrayed as a democratic way against dictatorships or corrupt governments. If Estrada is acquitted, then, EDSA 2 becomes not an authentic revolution, but a pure coup d’etat initiated by a hungry counter-elite.

If Estrada is acquitted, then, it opens Arroyo and her schizos to prosecution. What crime? Coup d’etat. Any private citizen can file a charge against them. It can be filed after 2010.

Conviction will most likely be the scenario. Why? The palace can definitely contain an Estrada-led revolution. It already did in May 2002. This kind of revolution will never succeed because it will be led by a cash-scrapped group. Obviously, civil society groups will never rally for Erap because they were the ones who pushed him out of power anyway. If they support such a move, they will appear very silly. And revolutionaries, by definition, are not silly vacillating personas.

There’s a catch though. Estrada will definitely be found guilty by the Sandiganbayan. He will probably be convicted. To placate an angry mob, however, the palace will pardon Erap. He’s 70 years old and under the law, he deserves executive clemency. An illegitimate president giving clemency to a legitimately elected president, that will be the coup of the century! Its beyond Arroyo’s powers to give clemency to Erap because it’s the law.

Remember what happened to Imelda and the Marcoses? They were given executive clemency. That will definitely also happen with Estrada. A conviction is the way to go. Besides, Estrada is just interested in evading jail terms anyway.

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