RedBlueThoughts

I don’t buy what Senator Estrada and his half-brother JV are saying to the media. Their father would be acquitted due to the strength of the evidence stacked against the prosecution.

The former president will be convicted because the powers-that-be thinks that a conviction will not affect their stay in power than a acquittal

An acquittal will placate the emotions of the Erap throng. It will, however, reinforce more the prevailing belief that Arroyo is the biggest thief. She stole the presidency due to public belief of Estrada’s corruption. If Estrada is found not guilty, then, it invalidates EDSA 2. If it invalidates a concept, generally accepted globally as the way to go to depose a corrupt and inept government, this will have serious, very serious global implications. And the CIA and the US government will definitely not like that. EDSAs are CIA formulations. It is portrayed as a democratic way against dictatorships or corrupt governments. If Estrada is acquitted, then, EDSA 2 becomes not an authentic revolution, but a pure coup d’etat initiated by a hungry counter-elite.

If Estrada is acquitted, then, it opens Arroyo and her schizos to prosecution. What crime? Coup d’etat. Any private citizen can file a charge against them. It can be filed after 2010.

Conviction will most likely be the scenario. Why? The palace can definitely contain an Estrada-led revolution. It already did in May 2002. This kind of revolution will never succeed because it will be led by a cash-scrapped group. Obviously, civil society groups will never rally for Erap because they were the ones who pushed him out of power anyway. If they support such a move, they will appear very silly. And revolutionaries, by definition, are not silly vacillating personas.

There’s a catch though. Estrada will definitely be found guilty by the Sandiganbayan. He will probably be convicted. To placate an angry mob, however, the palace will pardon Erap. He’s 70 years old and under the law, he deserves executive clemency. An illegitimate president giving clemency to a legitimately elected president, that will be the coup of the century! Its beyond Arroyo’s powers to give clemency to Erap because it’s the law.

Remember what happened to Imelda and the Marcoses? They were given executive clemency. That will definitely also happen with Estrada. A conviction is the way to go. Besides, Estrada is just interested in evading jail terms anyway.

First, an Italian priest was kidnapped. Second, a surge of crimes in Manila, dead bodies floating in the Pasig. Third, Garcillano defending an obviously guilty Bedol. And fourth, an advertisement appearing in major broadsheets about the effects of the Estrada case.

These incidents, however, unrelated, seems to reflect certain realities in our present day. The first one shows that terrorism is still alive in the Philippines. The second seems to say that extra-constitutional means to solve crimes are the way to go. The third, well, seems to say that extra-constitutional means apply only to lowly criminals, thieves, and drug pushers, not drug lords or big-time thieves like Bedol and Garcillano. Why? Because these two have “atty” affixed in their names. And, they have connections. So, the Pasig is not fit for them. These two shennanigans, the very icons of graft and corruption, despicable men without integrity and honor in their hearts deserve being there in the Pasig river. Curiously though, no revolutionary or cop crusader goes after their thick hides. No dirty harry threatens them with salvage. No Ka Roger Rosal or ABB or JI or ASG kidnaps them and feeds them to the crocs. Or, a Magdalo.

The fourth one seems to say that guilty or not, the Arroyos are here to stay. And stay they will even after 2010. The Estradas are saying they are not interested in going back to the mansion beside the Pasig. It’s littered with dead bodies and stinking live ones anyway. Its better to have a presence in Pasay.

But, paranoia still prevades in the hearts of the Malacanan occupants. Using government money, they put up these ridiculous ads to well, say, that whatever Estrada plans to do, they will repulse it. Yesterday, Executive Secretary Ermita has just articulated what they feel about it. There’s no threat. They will survive whatever anyone throws at them, even the kitchen sink. And survive, I think, they will. Why?

First, they are eliminating Ramos men from the picture. They targetted Ramos directly by undermining Lakas during the elections. Arroyo’s KAMPI party tried to destroy Lakas but failed. They zeroed in on a Lakas original,JDV, yet failed miserably.

They then re-directed their guns on Ramos men in the Cabinet. These schizos from the palace allowed their own Chief of Staff to be humiliated in the media by a lowly ex-Lt. Senior Grade. Then, they move another Ramos man from the sensitive defense post to his former post which is the DPWH. Talks are rife that Ermita will be out too. It seems that there’s a move to isolate and remove these people from power. Why? They feel threatened. Arroyo’s schizos are fearing for their lives. Why again?

Because they want Arroyo to stay in power in 2010. And current circumstances, well, point to an exit, even an early one.

If Arroyo’s schizos fail to manage these incidents, it’s quite certain that these will blow up in their faces. If the palace does not manage an outbreak of emotions connected directly with this Estrada trial, an early exit is sure to come.