RedBlueThoughts

SWS held a survey on top leaders last June. It says that the net satisfaction rating of VP de Castro, Villar and the rest were “stable”, meaning, they enjoy some sense of satisfaction among Filipinos (see story below).

However, this survey also has a purpose. It shows us the possible presidentiables in 2010. This early, we have a former broadcaster, a former real estate bigwig, a perennial presidential loser and an activist justice being packaged as possible presidentiables. All are leaders. And definitely, all are losers in the public’s heart.

Why the survey so early?

It seems that this is a commissioned survey intended to serve the interests of those interested in Malacanan. This early, businessmen are looking out for the replacement of Mrs. Arroyo whose illegitimate term ends in 2010.

There are indications, however, that Mrs. Arroyo might not last her term for two possible reasons: one, should she successfully launch a war in Mindanao, that would trigger a bigger Oakwood, leading to her ouster. Two, her propensity to lean towards China, forgetting that her ally, the US, supported her during her most critical years in power.

History would show that all who befriended the Chinese lost. Marcos did thru Meldy. Erap surrounded himself with Taipans. GMA is doing this thru the DOTC. Should GMA continue to support China and incidentally, India, we might see the hand of the CIA once more.

This time, there will be no FVR to save GMA from ouster.
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SWS: Satisfaction ratings for VP de Castro, 3 others stable

Public satisfaction with Vice-President Noli de Castro and three other top officials was steady, results of the Second Quarter of 2007 Social Weather Station Survey revealed Tuesday.

The new survey, fielded on June 27-30, also found improvements in public satisfaction with the Senate and the House of Representatives.

The June 2007 survey found 57 percent satisfied and 27 percent dissatisfied with the performance of de Castro for a net rating of +30.

Senate President Manuel Villar Jr. had 66 satisfied and 16 percent dissatisfied with his performance, for a favorable net rating of +51, correctly rounded.

Public sentiments were neutral regarding the performance of Speaker Jose de Venecia, who had 37 percent satisfied and 38 percent dissatisfied, or a net rating of –1, and Chief Justice Reynato Puno, who had 35 percent satisfied and 32 percent dissatisfied, or a net rating of +3.

De Castro’s net satisfaction rating has ranged between +19 and +40 over the past three years, and has been in the +30s in the last four quarters.

Villar has maintained his net ratings in the +50’s in the past two quarters, doing better than the net +39 and net +42 during his first two quarters as Senate president.

De Venecia’s net rating ranged from +5 to +23 in 2001-2004, but was from net –8 to +9 since December 2004. His net ratings were generally higher during his stint as speaker under the Ramos administration.

Public satisfaction with Puno was neutral in the past two quarters, similar to that of former chief justice Artemio Panganiban, whose rating ranged from –3 to +4.

The June 2007 survey found 55 percent satisfied and 25 percent dissatisfied with the performance of the Senate, for a net rating of +29, correctly rounded.

It showed 46 percent satisfied and 27 percent dissatisfied with the performance of the House of Representatives, for a net rating of +20, correctly rounded.

It found 43 percent satisfied and 31 percent dissatisfied with the Supreme Court, for a moderately good net rating of +12.

Public satisfaction with the Cabinet as a whole was mixed, with 35 percent satisfied and 35 percent dissatisfied, or a net rating of +1, correctly rounded.

The Senate and the House of Representative have generally been rated more favorably than other institutions, with the Senate rated better than the House. The latest survey shows both legislative branches in continuing recovery from a deep slump in May 2005.

The Supreme Court has been rated positively since it dropped to neutral in March 2005, but not as high as it was at the start of the Arroyo administration.

Satisfaction with the Cabinet as a whole has ranged from –10 to +1 since August 2005, lower than it used to be during the start of the Arroyo administration up to March 2004, when it ranged between –7 to 17.

The Second Quarter of 2007 Social Weather Stations Survey was conducted over June 27-30, 2007 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.

(First posted 7/31/2007 at 11:04:52 a.m.)

It seems that the Palace and the AFP are not seeing eye to eye. Malacanang said there will be no Basilan offensives. While Palace trumpeters say there’s no war, on Fort Aguinaldo, AFP Chief of Staff Esperon is giving a pep talk on thousands of soldiers who are going to be sent to war. Ulamas in Mindanao already issued a warning to the administration that war will definitely set back peace efforts in the already war-torn place.

The US and the EU have issued separate statements with one singular message–don’t go to war in Mindanao. If you do, then we’ll slash our defense donations. I heard other donor countries will likewise do a similar act. These are signs Madame President that Western countries don’t want a war in Mindanao. If you pursue this course, there’s a BIG Possibility that you’ll not last another year in the Palace.

DON’T GO TO WAR. People are already thinking that this is deja vu. They’re thinking its 2000 all over again. And you know what happened in 2000–when Erap went to war then, it further weakened his hold in the military.

THIS MIGHT HAPPEN TO ARROYO. A costly war will deplete the public coffers. And this war in Mindanao will definitely be an expensive one.

THIS WAR IS A BIG BLUNDER. Moro rebels, I heard, are well prepared. Your military’s morale is at the lowest ebbs. If you send these soldiers to war, they will suffer defeat. If they do, you are courting disaster. A disaster that will lead to your eventual ouster.

WAR weakens states. The country has barely recovered from a long slump. A war will debilitate efforts in Mindanao. It will further breed fundamentalism. It will definitely bolster the ranks of the Moro rebels, bringing your administration to its knees.

A war in the North and another in the South are very costly, Madame President. Don’t listen to your advisers. They are out to get you.

Should you go this course of action, you court widespread withdrawal of support.

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I told you so. This administration will never allow Trillianes to sit as senator. The Makati RTC issued a decision disallowing Trillianes to attend Senate sessions.

For as long as Esperon holds power, Trillianes will never assume power as Senator of this Republic.

The question now looms—que est?

There’s a disjunct between what businessmen said and what politicians think about the president’s sona. As usual, Gloria received a battery of comments from the politicians, most especially from Senator Jinggoy who likened GMA to “Lolit Solis”. Well, what does he think of himself? A serious politician?

Some politicians threw stones at the president, calling the Sona as just a littany of accomplishments. Well, what do they think about the Sona?

Others, like this “academic” whom I saw on ANC (Korina Sanchez show) thought that it was a “sarzuela”. Well, what can I possibly get from an anthropologist? Is an anthropologist credible enough to analyze a political act? I don’t think so.

Even FVR joined the fray. He lambasted the president. As what’s expected of FVR, he thinks that the president has failed in her mission to reform the economy. He blurted out that “the president failed to galvanize the country into one united nation” and thus, affecting what could have been a very nice program of governance. And like septuagenarians like him, he then told us about the “brilliance” of his administration. Nagyabang na naman si Lolo. But, don’t get me wrong–I like him. Compared with Cory’s, Erap’s and GMA’s terms, FVR’s term is the only one of its kind in Philippine history.

There’s a disjunct between what politicians and businessmen think about the president’s Sona. Most businessmen liked what the president said about the sona. Its full of optimism, something which most politicians missed. I think GMA is like Caesar during the tumultuous era of the Romans.

In her State of the Nation Address, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo appeared like a tireless government worker. While Villar and his ilk fought against each other, Arroyo appears nonplused and like telling everybody else, hey just work for the Filipino People, will ya?

Its like GMA is pursuing a true revolution while the rest of humanity appears like counter-revolutionaries. Thousands demonstrate their disgusts outside Batasan. While they were shouting invectives against GMA, this president appeared like she does not care. “Let’s just work, work and work together”, says the dimunitive president.

However, Mrs. President, your slip is showing.

Her speech was okey until she touched on the on-going war among the presidentiables. I think she just said that to allay fears that she is becoming a lame duck president. With just three years left in her administration, GMA wants to communicate to everybody that she still can use her powers to vanguish her enemies. However, she said this in a statemanly manner that nobody reacted negatively against her.

The question that everybody is asking–will GMA survive an ERAP-led revolt in the event of a conviction? I think she will. We will still see GMA in 2010. And possibly, even beyond that if her enemies continue to be idiots.

Today, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo reinvented herself. Giving a speech before the throng of oligarchs and tradpols, GMA emerged like a True Executive. She did’nt mention anything about politics. She did’nt even said anything against those who oppose her. She did’nt even touched on the controversial Human Security Act.

Her speech is about the economy. It says much about infrastructure, the inroads done in the field of diplomacy, technology, agriculture, graft and corruption and crime prevention. GMA reported development, growth, optimism and the rest. This is the right way of doing it. She appeared like she’s really working. And I think she is REALLY working for the benefit of the Filipino People.

However, what I fear, and I think most of the people have this trepidation—who among the current crop of presidential wannabes has the same values like GMA? Can we trust Villar? If Villar is the one,expect every field to be paved with cement. If its Loren, then, expect things to worsen. If its Roxas, it’ll definitely be the victory of Big Business. How about Escudero? Nah, he’s showing his true colors now. He can’t belie his traditional political roots. What about Ping Lacson? I think Ping is the one but he needs to show us that he understands economics. Its okey to have a president that’s strong but I think that we need as the next president to be knowledgeable in economics and investments.

Is it possible that Malacanan will field De Castro as its bet in 2010? Possible, but will he win. Probably. De Castro is definitely the dark horse.

GMA is a good tactician. Through this speech,she efectively stroked the interracine war among the presidentiables. Obviously, these egotistic politicians will fight among themselves. As they fight, they cannot effectively muster enough force and strength to oust her from power. GMA has diffused the things that could lead to her ouster.

GMA is good until 2010.

This is the first time that I finished listening to the president’s sona. Some years ago, I was one of the thousands jeering the president for allegedly “lying” before the Filipino People. Before, I used to confront hundreds of truncheon-wielding cops who defend this president who causes everybody such painful agonies.

Now, I commend Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo for her speech today. It was a speech filled with optimism. It was a report on the state of the Nation. She is correct. Indeed, the state of the nation is strong. GMA is correct in just focusing on the economic gains achieved by her administration instead of confronting her detractors in their own game. For the first time, rallyists appear like shouting discordant tones. They are protesting against the Human Security Act. They thought that GMA will give it in her speech. They were mistaken. GMA mentioned the term only thrice.

At last, GMA gave the right speech.

Atty. Homobono Adaza, counsel of Magdalo, filed another plunder case against former president Estrada. In the case he filed at the Sandiganbayan, Adaza included Erap among those to be charged for plunder. Representing an unknown prince who claims ownership of the entire Philippine archiepelago, Adaza said that Erap should be charged for allowing the construction of the Erap City at the Tala estate. The attorney says that estate was part of the property of this prince.

Bull.

Adaza should just keep silent. I don’t know what Adaza has in his mind. Clearly, this is an attempt at keeping Erap behind bars. The question really is, what will Erap do? Obviously, this administration will not allow him to escape jail.

I would like to see how Erap will react in this latest caper. Its clear that this administration is pushing the ex-leader to the wall. Maybe this administration knows something which we, ordinary mortals, do not. Will they drag this country into civil war? Will Erap use his vast financial resources to campaign against this administration?

Will Asiong Salonga vanquish his enemies? Let’s see.

Now it can be told—Bossi was released after negotiators (mostly government) agreed on a prisoner swap. Clearly, the kidnappers whom are ABU SAYYAF negotiated for a prisoner swap. They would swap Bossi with their comrades who were imprisoned in a Basilan jail.

Months ago, I was very certain that it was the ASG who kidnapped Bossi. One, the way he was kidnapped bore the signature of the terrorist group. Two, there were no demands for ransom; meaning the reason for the kidnapping was not monetary but strategic. And three, Bossi was kept in Lanao province and moved around outside Zamboanga peninsula.

The MILF supplied the government with information that it was the ASG that made the kidnapping. It was led by Abdul Salam, which is one of the spiritual cadres in the terror group. It is very clear that the ASG has evolved into a more highly sophisticated armed group. We just don’t know if money changed hands for the release of Bossi. I am, however, very certain that this one is a prisoner swap.

Clearly, this state is a very weak one. They capitulated to the demands of these terrorists. This administration needs to be replaced immediately. The Philippines is truly the weakest link in the anti-terror fight in the Asia-Pacific.

Paging the US! Help us replace this administration.

Read this news article…..Imagine, the jailbreak happened hours after Bossi was released from captivity. Why the jailbreak in Basilan, a place where the encounter between the Marines and the MILF happened?

It seems that a big war is brewing in the South…this, I think, is meant to weaken GMA for eventual ouster.

Suspects in Dos Palmas kidnapping escape Basilan jail

Four Abu Sayyaf Group members, two of whom were involved in the kidnapping of foreign tourists in Palawan six years ago, escaped with 12 other inmates from the provincial jail of Basilan island Friday morning.

Authorities identified the four bandits as Itting Askalani, Enteng Anjil, Abug Sampang and Wakil Sampang.

Reports said Abug and Wakil Sampang were arrested last January 5 at the Village Restaurant along Gov. Camins Avenue in Zamboanga City.

The two were arrested for murder and kidnapping charges in connection with the bloody hospital siege in Lamitan, Basilan in June 2001 and the kidnapping of at least 20 foreign tourists from the Dos Palmas Beach Resort in Puerto Princesa, Palawan the same year.

Authorities have yet to determine background information of the other two escaped bandits. The identities of the other prisoners who escaped along with the four bandits have yet to be determined by the police.

Chief Inspector Christopher Panapan said the inmates escaped by sawing through the iron bars on the window of their cell between 2 a.m. to 4 a.m. The inmates then scaled a wall to escape.

Basilan Provincial Director Salik Macapantar confirmed the jailbreak, which occurred hours after suspected Moro rebels freed Italian priest Fr. Giancarlo Bossi in Lanao del Norte late Thursday.

Now it can be told—Bossi was released after negotiators (mostly government) agreed on a prisoner swap. Clearly, the kidnappers whom are ABU SAYYAF negotiated for a prisoner swap. They would swap Bossi with their comrades who were imprisoned in a Basilan jail.

Months ago, I was very certain that it was the ASG who kidnapped Bossi. One, the way he was kidnapped bore the signature of the terrorist group. Two, there were no demands for ransom; meaning the reason for the kidnapping was not monetary but strategic. And three, Bossi was kept in Lanao province and moved around outside Zamboanga peninsula.

Clearly, this state is a very weak one. They capitulated to the demands of these terrorists. This administration needs to be replaced immediately. The Philippines is truly the weakest link in the anti-terror fight in the Asia-Pacific.

Paging the US! Help us replace this administration.

Suspects in Dos Palmas kidnapping escape Basilan jail

Four Abu Sayyaf Group members, two of whom were involved in the kidnapping of foreign tourists in Palawan six years ago, escaped with 12 other inmates from the provincial jail of Basilan island Friday morning.

Authorities identified the four bandits as Itting Askalani, Enteng Anjil, Abug Sampang and Wakil Sampang.

Reports said Abug and Wakil Sampang were arrested last January 5 at the Village Restaurant along Gov. Camins Avenue in Zamboanga City.

The two were arrested for murder and kidnapping charges in connection with the bloody hospital siege in Lamitan, Basilan in June 2001 and the kidnapping of at least 20 foreign tourists from the Dos Palmas Beach Resort in Puerto Princesa, Palawan the same year.

Authorities have yet to determine background information of the other two escaped bandits. The identities of the other prisoners who escaped along with the four bandits have yet to be determined by the police.

Chief Inspector Christopher Panapan said the inmates escaped by sawing through the iron bars on the window of their cell between 2 a.m. to 4 a.m. The inmates then scaled a wall to escape.

Basilan Provincial Director Salik Macapantar confirmed the jailbreak, which occurred hours after suspected Moro rebels freed Italian priest Fr. Giancarlo Bossi in Lanao del Norte late Thursday.

This is the reason why we need a change in the AFP leadership, and overall the government.

ON TARGET
Abu Sayyaf did not take part in ambush of Marines
By Ramon Tulfo
Inquirer
Last updated 11:41pm (Mla time) 07/18/2007
The Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) joined forces in ambushing the Marines on their way home and later beheaded and mutilated some of them.

True or false?

False. There were no Abu Sayyaf bandits among the ambushers, according to my informant, a military intelligence agent.

My unimpeachable source said the attackers were members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the men of former Basilan Gov. Wahab Akbar whose wife is now the incumbent governor.

The Abu Sayyaf bandits, who were holding Italian priest Giancarlo Bossi, were nowhere near the area as they were running away from their military pursuers.

The MILF and Akbar’s men ambushed the Marine convoy to give the Abu Sayyaf kidnappers time to escape from their pursuers.

Akbar got 800 firearms from unidentified sources before the senatorial and local elections and distributed these among his men and other groups, my source said.

Some of the firearms were allegedly used in the ambush of the Marines.

Apart from rifles, the MILF and Akbar’s men used rifle-propelled grenades and 81 mm mortars in ambushing the Marines.

According to my source, the MILF has RPGs or rifle-propelled grenades, but they don’t have 81 mm mortars. Only Akbar has.

Question: Who provided Akbar with the 800 M-16 and M-14 rifles and 81 mm mortars?

Why did the military allow Akbar’s men to have 81 mm mortars that are for the exclusive use of the military?

On the subject of air support, an OV 10 attack helicopter and two MG520 hovered over the scene of the fighting, but left without firing a shot, said my source.

The UH1H helicopter also hovered over the area, but left also without firing a shot. A gunner of one of the “Huey” choppers was hit, forcing the pilot to return to base.

It could not be determined why the reinforcement aircraft left and literally fed the ground troops to the dogs.

The only officer who could order the dispatch and withdrawal of air support to beleaguered troops was Lt. Gen. Eugene Cedo, chief of the Western Mindanao Command (Wesmincom).

Cedo was not at the Wesmincom headquarters in Zamboanga City, but in Cagayan de Oro City reportedly attending a security summit there.

Since Cedo was not in his area of command, he would not know the situation on the ground.

The military inefficiency in Basilan, as far as air support was concerned, seems a reenactment of the military bungling in the Abu Sayyaf raid at Dos Palmas resort in Palawan.

The Western Command under a Commodore Rabago didn’t send aircraft to pursue the kidnappers who were riding on a fast seacraft. Rabago was reportedly playing golf at the time of the raid.

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The owner of a firm allegedly involved in the overpricing of lampposts in Cebu City during the Asean Summit this year frequents the casinos and reportedly loses millions almost daily. The guy could be gambling with people’s money.