RedBlueThoughts

The Philippine National Police (PNP) reported a dramatic rise of election-related violence in the country. Since January, a total of 125 election-related violence had occurred throughout the country, translate: 4 incidents every day. Observers say, this is the most violent election in Philippine history since the Marcos era.

What’s more, it seems that the State is using this to justify calling the State security agencies. What is the internal motivations for this?

I think that the State is planning to counter any moves for its ouster. The Opposition right now is perceived as weak. Doronila in his column said that the Opposition failed to mobilize public sentiments against the State, which, i think is an underestimation of the Opposition. Yes, in political terms, the moves of the Opposition lacks clear direction. By emphasizing on its strength in the Senate race, it somewhat abandoned its Congressional base which is quite crucial to any moves at impeaching the President. Conversely, the administration party made its grassroots machinery more potent and lethal. By admitting defeat in the Congressional and local fronts, the Opposition committed a faux pas. If, for example, the administration does massive cheating, it can always say that the victory of its bets was assured by its vaunted local grassroots machinery.

I think the State wants to impose emergency rule after the elections. If its bets fail to bag a substantial number in the legislative and local executive posts, it can always call upon the military and declare emergency rule citing failure of elections due to violence. Such moves may be considered ill-advised. But, self-preservation can always be invoked by the State.

The Opposition should ensure that it has the power or the capability to mobilize people as a counter-measure. But, by the looks of it, the opposition is a splintered lot. This elections further deepened the animosities between the Erap camp and the so-called “reformists”. (Erap camp-close associates and supporters of ex-president Estrada while the “reformists” are composed of former EDSA 2 leaders or ex-GMA officials). This elections is slowly uncovering the real character of these “Oppositionists”.

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