RedBlueThoughts

To those in the intelligence services and inside the palace who are monitoring this blog, thank you very much. I am extremely pleased that you are adjusting your policies and your actions after reading entries from this blog. Thanks.

You know, our country is really on a roll, thanks to the more improved economic environment. I am studying our economy with sincere earnest and the economy is sturdy and bullish. There are many opportunities for investments. I do agree with Senator Richard Gordon when he said that it will take time before the economic windfall will trickle down the masses. The economy is improving, yet the state of our politics remains dismally the same.

Madam President, what we need is an ideology, a truly Filipino ideology that would animate the catatonic minds of our people.

We need you to be our inspiration. (For those who read my blogs previously, they would be surprised why I am now appealing to Mrs. Arroyo whom I hate before). I admit I hate the guts of Mrs. Arroyo for more than five years now.  However, in this historic juncture when there is no one to stand up for the Filipino people, it is expedient for us to just support Mrs. Arroyo instead of allowing other people with questionable ideologies to rule our country.

There should be a conscious effort at psycho-social engineering through the media. The slogan should be “Pilipino Ako, Pinakamagaling sa Buong Mundo”. We should inspire our people to stand up for their rights and prove to the world that we are better than them in all aspects.

Madame President, now is the time for you to be the exemplar. Urge our people to strive for excellence in everything that they do. There should be a campaign for this. All Filipinos should be trained to think of excellence.

Do you agree with what I am proposing here? Well, if you are, then, write me a reaction.

This is the bus where Filipino entrepreneur Jun Ducat is holding 32 students hostaged. As I write this, Ducat has just released a kid whom he said has fever. Negotiations already ended between a senator and Ducat. However, until now, aside from this incident,no significant signs of any other significant improvement has happened.

For those who don’t know police procedures on hostage taking, it is actually beneficial for police and hostage negotiators to prolong the situation. Why? In a hostage taking situation, authorities are always in the upperhand. The hostage taker has not enough resources to sustain it. He can only last until his resources dry up.  Based on the driver’s narration, before this incident, he was ordered by the hostage taker to go to a supermarket to buy groceries. So, Ducat is in for a long haul, probably, just within the day.

The question is—is Ducat waiting for a sign, a signal from Above? Or will he be an improvement of Villareal who died when he took an airport tower four years ago?

I say, let a hundred Juns rise up now!

Filipino entrepreneur Jun Ducat, along with two others, held 32 children hostage in Manila today. With assault rifles and a grenade, Ducat’s group reportedly commandeered a bus somewhere in Tondo Manila. He then stopped the bus infront of a monument of Filipino hero, Andres Bonifacio and demanded media attention.

Who’s Jun Ducat?

Based on radio reports, Jun Ducat is an entrepreneur who has a string of similar incidents before. Sometime in the late 1990’s, Jun reportedly held hostage a priest whom he accused of failing to pay him his contractor fees. Five or six years ago, he was the same guy who went atop the Rotonda Monument in Manila demanding government to help the poor. He also held a hunger strike at that time to dramatize his cause. Sadly though, media never bothered with him.

Other reports picture him as a conscientious guy who has a genuine heart for the poor. Activists and other members of people’s organisations say that Ducat founded the Musmos Daycare center, an organisation helping impoverished kids in the slums of Manila get education. Apparently, he’s a well-loved guy who helps poor folk in Manila and Cavite.

Reports also said that he founded a native crafts company which exports furnitures. That’s where he got his money to fund his activities. He also took part in the elections in Manila (3rd district) but lost to a veteran politician.

What’s clear, he has a history of activism. He’s also a labor leader in Cavite, as what the senator’s son describes him.

Some questions

Evidently, his caper is well-planned. Bus driver Deogracias Bugarin told mediamen that Ducat’s group is well-armed and well-prepared. Its a premeditated thing. Ducat admitted having invited the kids for a field trip in Tagaytay. Obviously, Ducat planned this very well.

And he’s succeeding. The world took notice of his cause. Global newspapers and the wires are covering this event. As we speak, Ducat has just released one of the kids. A senator, who’s Ducat’s compadre, is still negotiating for him to release all of the students.

Some thoughts on this:

• Ducat obviously, is a well-trained cadre. From where in the political spectrum, we obviously don’t know. Definitely, he’s not a member of the CPP-NPA-NDF, though its surprising why he decided to do this in the eve of the NPA’s 39th year anniversary. He’s really a professional.
• From where he decided to do this betrays yet again his cadre roots. Look at how he positions the bus right infront of the monument of Andres Bonifacio. We all know that Bonifacio is a plebian hero. Notice where he got the bus from—Tondo Manila. Tondo is where Bonifacio was born and where all the poor masses who staged the May 1 2002 revolt came from. What’s ironic though, he decided to hostage the very kids of the masses whom he’s supposed to protect (it could have been different if he did it in a busload full of the elite’s kids)
• Look at the timing. This incident happened today, 28 March 2007, a day before the start of campaigns for local posts. its 3-10 (2+8) - 9(2+7). And the incident was reported to have started around 9am. Anything relevant? 9 is divisible by 3, while ten is divisible by 2. Is 1 just around the corner?What about zero?
• Take note of what he said when he was being interviewed by media. Its full of political-speak. He’s an intellectual. He knows what he’s doing that makes him extremely dangerous.
• More on this in a while….

A sword of Damocles hangs above the head of Mrs. Arroyo. This early, the international community has created a big issue against her administration. Philip Alston, the UN rapporteur for extrajudicial killings, is submitting his report before the UN General Assembly. Another important international personality, Nobel peace prize winner Desmund Tutu recently issued a very disturbing and strong condemnation of the Arroyo administration. Tutu said that he feels disturbed by the use of the anti-terror law to “marginalize” and kill the political opposition. International condemnation against Arroyo is snowballing, reminding me of the time before Marcos’ fall.

What is happening, I think, is that the US is slowly realizing that Arroyo is more of a liability than an asset. Yes, she’s a lapdog. Yes, she’s willing to trade anything, even the kitchen sink to the Americans just to stay in power. However, under the Arroyo regime though, more and more people are turning into rebels and potential terrorists because of her inhumane treatment of her citizens. Quite frankly, Uncle Sam is deathly afraid for two reasons: One, under this regime, the “enemies of democracy” so to speak, is turning mainstream. Two, the inability of the administration to prevent the transformation of the country into a veritable terrorist training ground is affecting regional security.

So, the US and her allies are looking for alternatives. They are entertaining the thought of (a) GMA through constitutional means and if this fails, (b) creating the conditions for the setting up of a military regime. All of these options depend on what will happen in this elections. Should there be a failure of the elections, the military will step in. Should there be a failure of the GMA administration to get critical support from the masses through this elections, then, an internal coup will happen. Any which way, there is a Grand Design being implemented right now. And its getting serious.

Understanding recent Philippine news reveals the following:

1. There is a silent effort or campaign to undermine  the Executive department.

2. There is a current effort or campaign to reconsolidate forces in the Right.

3. Attacks against the Left are part of the overall strategy to effectively isolate the enemies of the State for possible violent internal coup.

4. International support for the Arroyo administration is weakening. There are reasons for this and possibly, it is due to current business interests in the country.

5. Business groups are waging an internal campaign to isolate the Arroyo administration.

These events are happening to weaken the enemies of the state and prepare the country for a possible martial law situation.

Why is Lakas and Kampi feuding?

Its all about money. And its worth 40 billion pesos. Consider this: a key Arroyo point man is said to be holding back funds for Lakas. The reason? It’s said that Arroyo’s marching orders were to weaken Lakas and strengthen Kampi.

Talks are also afoot that Lakas is aligning itself with the Genuine Opposition (GO). There are reports that both parties have already merged and waiting for the right time to announce it. It’s said that talks have finalized already and its just a matter of time before this impacts on the Philippine political scene.

The question really is—is GMA ready for another showdown with the FVR group?

Both the opposition (Genuine Opposition) and the administration (Team Unity) campaign machines have grounded to a full stop today. GO announced that they will not conduct any campaign sortie for the next two weeks while consolidating their resources. While TU said they will rest for two days starting today to assess their campaign strategies.

Meanwhile, BAYAN Muna Rep. Satur Ocampo’s case continues to gain media mileage not only here but abroad. Various US newspapers have been publishing photos of the embattled legislator being herded into jail. Today, the AFP suffered a terrible blackeye when it sent the legislator back to Manila after a judge verbally ordered Ocampo’s “repatriation” to Manila.  Whatever propaganda points the AFP gained when it “exposed” the alleged mass killings of former Communist spies in Leyte have now been rendered irrelevant. The people remain irreverent to these accusations. Whoever masterminded this episode should be punished for being utterly stupid.

Lack of funds. Continuing political repression. Pockets of political killings throughout the archipelago. These are danger signals that we are in for a very turbulent May elections.

Worse, the stock market is in the receiving end of a regional backlash. Regional markets are volatile, due to the strengthening of the greenback. The local economy is feeling a crunch, signalling that foreign investors are keeping their funds close to their chests while keeping a watchful eye on the developments in the political front. Many investors are cautious of the Philippine situation. Analysts are closely observing the economy, especially its resilience against internal threats.

Post-May election scenario

I still say that both camps will cancel themselves out after this election. I still hold the belief that the people will repudiate these political con artists or pseudo servants of the Filipino people. This election will have a very low turnout. Not many people are interested in participating in this election anyway. Many segments of the Middle class are having reservations on participating in this exercise. Even segments of the CDE class as well. A low turnout will pose a very disturbing dilemma to the civilian leadership because it will show the lack of trust and faith of the people in this elections. A low turnout will justify an extra-judicial  exercise of a massive scale. A low turnout plus gross election fraud will be the coup d’grace so to speak to a civilian-led government.

Scenario 1

Massive fraud against the opposition. Administration candidates rout opposition forces. Opposition rises, condemning electoral fraud. Business groups join the fray. Church remains apolitical. Administration moves to defend itself against opposition attacks. Arroyo weakens, FVR group enters into the picture again. No coup. FVR group reconsolidates itself and gains more power inside the Palace. Kampi disintegrates. Opposition slowly weakens.

Scenario 2

Massive fraud. Hundreds killed. Opposition condemns administration for fraud. Thousands rally against GMA administration. Administration moves or threatens opposition ranks using its military forces. Successive arrests are made. GMA consolidates power, weakening other groups within the palace. Coup as a power play. GMA forces defeat coup plotters. Position strengthens. GMA Kampi moves towards more power. Opposition weakens and slowly fades away.

Scenario 3

No published allegations of fraud. Administration accedes to Opposition victory at the senate yet gains significant numbers in Congress. Opposition weakens, administration strengthens. FVR group in palace weakens.

Scenario 4

Massive fraud. Hundreds killed. Opposition charges administration, calls for civil disobedience. US intervenes and sides with opposition. Administration defends itself, calling on its military forces to protect itself against opposition. FVR group moves in and protects GMA. US sides with FVR group, leaving opposition in the lurch. GMA retains ceremonial powers, leaving FVR group as the real power brokers in the Palace. FVR group declares unannounced martial rule. FVR group retains more power, while the power of GMA group is marginalized.

Scenario 5

Administration accepts electoral defeat. Opposition consolidates power in Congress. FVR group waits. Opposition files 3rd impeachment case against Arroyo. Political move draws mass support. Administration uses draconian measures for self-preservation. Foreign governments condemn dictatorial moves. FVR group moves for the kill, supports opposition forces and gets US support. Administration calls for martial rule. FVR group and opposition forces unite and call for the enlightened military to defend the people. Catholic church joins the fray. Administration negotiates for exile. Arroyo is ousted from power. Council of state established. Coup forces slowly detaches itself from socialists, isolating the group. Massive post-coup killings and detentions.  Six months of emergency rule. Reconsolidation of power. After 6 months, snap presidential elections under a new constitution.

Scenario 6

Administration accepts defeat at the Senate but retains majority stake in the Lower House. Opposition files 3rd impeachment case. Administration moves through subtle political maneuverings. GMA military forces move to neutralize state enemies. FVR group waits. Church declares support of Opposition move. Administration blinks and calls for unity. Opposition ignores unity. New military force springs from the darkness and launches a coup. FVR group defends GMA and is defeated. Military force arrests administration officials and cause GMA to exile. US moves in to restore order. New Military force accedes to US and creates revolutionary government. Civilians are put as caretakers while military retains real power. Six months of military rule. Military calls for constitutional convention. New constitution springs out.

I just got married last Friday. Yup. I did. And the (un)lucky girl? Its Liezel. Yes, she is. And I’m happy.

At last, this chapter is now officially closed. Ended. Finale. Zup. Zilch. Nothing. Nada. Ended like an empanada. But, some say, its just a start of something.

After getting married civilly, we spent the night together. We played sweet music and spent those hours exploring ourselves. The specifics, the next entry. Hehehe.

I make a fearless prediction. Today, AFP Chief of Staff Esperon taunted his fellow soldier-officers when he made a remark saying that he recommended the filing of charges and incarceration of 28 officers and men of the AFP because “it was his prerogative” as “Chief of Staff”. He says that he is calibrating his actions and response against these men and “in due time, they will experience the brunt of discipline.”

There’s a Tagalog term for this: kapalmuks. Sino ka para sabihing kailangang disiplinahin ang mga sundalong ito? Bakit, ikaw ba sir, may discipline pa? Kapal mung sabihin yan samantalang kaya ka naman naging AFP Chief dahil malakas ka kamo ke Gloria. At bakit ka malakas? Dahil pader ang kinapitan mo. Maraming mga opisyal na mas gentleman pa sa iyo, sir.

I remember General Ver during the sunset days of the Marcos dictatorship. I remember Esperon’s and Ver’s faces.  They look exactly like twins.